Democratic incumbent Josh Gottheimer, who won re-election in 2024 with 54.6% of the vote, advanced unopposed through the June 2, 2026, primary to face Republican Sean Kirrane in the November general election for New Jersey’s 5th congressional district. The seat carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+2 and receives Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic ratings from nonpartisan analysts, reflecting its modest Democratic tilt and Gottheimer’s established fundraising and name recognition edge. Kirrane’s limited campaign resources and the absence of competitive primary challenges or major recent developments have kept trader consensus on a Democratic hold at 58%, with the Republican outcome priced at 32.5%. Upcoming factors that could influence probabilities include general-election polling trends and any late-cycle national political shifts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/04
共和党
30%
民主党
64%
新規
新規
2026/11/04
共和党
$239 Vol.
30%
民主党
$342 Vol.
64%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Josh Gottheimer, who won re-election in 2024 with 54.6% of the vote, advanced unopposed through the June 2, 2026, primary to face Republican Sean Kirrane in the November general election for New Jersey’s 5th congressional district. The seat carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+2 and receives Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic ratings from nonpartisan analysts, reflecting its modest Democratic tilt and Gottheimer’s established fundraising and name recognition edge. Kirrane’s limited campaign resources and the absence of competitive primary challenges or major recent developments have kept trader consensus on a Democratic hold at 58%, with the Republican outcome priced at 32.5%. Upcoming factors that could influence probabilities include general-election polling trends and any late-cycle national political shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ET
音量
$582終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Josh Gottheimer, who won re-election in 2024 with 54.6% of the vote, advanced unopposed through the June 2, 2026, primary to face Republican Sean Kirrane in the November general election for New Jersey’s 5th congressional district. The seat carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+2 and receives Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic ratings from nonpartisan analysts, reflecting its modest Democratic tilt and Gottheimer’s established fundraising and name recognition edge. Kirrane’s limited campaign resources and the absence of competitive primary challenges or major recent developments have kept trader consensus on a Democratic hold at 58%, with the Republican outcome priced at 32.5%. Upcoming factors that could influence probabilities include general-election polling trends and any late-cycle national political shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$582終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Josh Gottheimer, who won re-election in 2024 with 54.6% of the vote, advanced unopposed through the June 2, 2026, primary to face Republican Sean Kirrane in the November general election for New Jersey’s 5th congressional district. The seat carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+2 and receives Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic ratings from nonpartisan analysts, reflecting its modest Democratic tilt and Gottheimer’s established fundraising and name recognition edge. Kirrane’s limited campaign resources and the absence of competitive primary challenges or major recent developments have kept trader consensus on a Democratic hold at 58%, with the Republican outcome priced at 32.5%. Upcoming factors that could influence probabilities include general-election polling trends and any late-cycle national political shifts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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