Maryland's 3rd congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+12 Partisan Voter Index and consistent ratings as a safe or solid Democratic seat by nonpartisan forecasters. Incumbent Democrat Sarah Elfreth, first elected in 2024, faces a crowded but low-profile primary on June 23, 2026, while Republicans field multiple challengers ahead of the November general election. This structural advantage, combined with the district's voting history in Howard and Anne Arundel counties, underpins trader consensus favoring a Democratic winner. A late primary upset producing a weaker nominee, unexpected scandal, or health-related withdrawal could introduce uncertainty, though such developments remain unlikely given current conditions and the limited Republican infrastructure in the district.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$26,066 Vol.
$26,066 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
94%
共和党
6%
$26,066 Vol.
$26,066 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$19,244 Vol.
94%
共和党
$6,822 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland's 3rd congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+12 Partisan Voter Index and consistent ratings as a safe or solid Democratic seat by nonpartisan forecasters. Incumbent Democrat Sarah Elfreth, first elected in 2024, faces a crowded but low-profile primary on June 23, 2026, while Republicans field multiple challengers ahead of the November general election. This structural advantage, combined with the district's voting history in Howard and Anne Arundel counties, underpins trader consensus favoring a Democratic winner. A late primary upset producing a weaker nominee, unexpected scandal, or health-related withdrawal could introduce uncertainty, though such developments remain unlikely given current conditions and the limited Republican infrastructure in the district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
音量
$26,066終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland's 3rd congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+12 Partisan Voter Index and consistent ratings as a safe or solid Democratic seat by nonpartisan forecasters. Incumbent Democrat Sarah Elfreth, first elected in 2024, faces a crowded but low-profile primary on June 23, 2026, while Republicans field multiple challengers ahead of the November general election. This structural advantage, combined with the district's voting history in Howard and Anne Arundel counties, underpins trader consensus favoring a Democratic winner. A late primary upset producing a weaker nominee, unexpected scandal, or health-related withdrawal could introduce uncertainty, though such developments remain unlikely given current conditions and the limited Republican infrastructure in the district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$26,066終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Maryland's 3rd congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+12 Partisan Voter Index and consistent ratings as a safe or solid Democratic seat by nonpartisan forecasters. Incumbent Democrat Sarah Elfreth, first elected in 2024, faces a crowded but low-profile primary on June 23, 2026, while Republicans field multiple challengers ahead of the November general election. This structural advantage, combined with the district's voting history in Howard and Anne Arundel counties, underpins trader consensus favoring a Democratic winner. A late primary upset producing a weaker nominee, unexpected scandal, or health-related withdrawal could introduce uncertainty, though such developments remain unlikely given current conditions and the limited Republican infrastructure in the district.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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