Maryland’s 3rd congressional district carries a D+12 Partisan Voter Index and has delivered consistent Democratic majorities in recent cycles, positioning the party nominee as the clear favorite for the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Sarah Elfreth faces a competitive Democratic primary on June 23 but enters the general with established name recognition and fundraising advantages typical of an open-seat successor in a safely Democratic district. Forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic, reflecting the structural barriers for any Republican nominee in a jurisdiction that has favored Democratic candidates by double-digit margins. A realistic challenge to the current trader consensus would require an unforeseen national political realignment or a primary outcome that significantly weakens the eventual Democratic standard-bearer ahead of the fall campaign.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$26,066 Vol.
$26,066 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
94%
共和党
6%
$26,066 Vol.
$26,066 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$19,244 Vol.
94%
共和党
$6,822 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland’s 3rd congressional district carries a D+12 Partisan Voter Index and has delivered consistent Democratic majorities in recent cycles, positioning the party nominee as the clear favorite for the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Sarah Elfreth faces a competitive Democratic primary on June 23 but enters the general with established name recognition and fundraising advantages typical of an open-seat successor in a safely Democratic district. Forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic, reflecting the structural barriers for any Republican nominee in a jurisdiction that has favored Democratic candidates by double-digit margins. A realistic challenge to the current trader consensus would require an unforeseen national political realignment or a primary outcome that significantly weakens the eventual Democratic standard-bearer ahead of the fall campaign.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
音量
$26,066終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland’s 3rd congressional district carries a D+12 Partisan Voter Index and has delivered consistent Democratic majorities in recent cycles, positioning the party nominee as the clear favorite for the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Sarah Elfreth faces a competitive Democratic primary on June 23 but enters the general with established name recognition and fundraising advantages typical of an open-seat successor in a safely Democratic district. Forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic, reflecting the structural barriers for any Republican nominee in a jurisdiction that has favored Democratic candidates by double-digit margins. A realistic challenge to the current trader consensus would require an unforeseen national political realignment or a primary outcome that significantly weakens the eventual Democratic standard-bearer ahead of the fall campaign.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$26,066終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Maryland’s 3rd congressional district carries a D+12 Partisan Voter Index and has delivered consistent Democratic majorities in recent cycles, positioning the party nominee as the clear favorite for the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Sarah Elfreth faces a competitive Democratic primary on June 23 but enters the general with established name recognition and fundraising advantages typical of an open-seat successor in a safely Democratic district. Forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic, reflecting the structural barriers for any Republican nominee in a jurisdiction that has favored Democratic candidates by double-digit margins. A realistic challenge to the current trader consensus would require an unforeseen national political realignment or a primary outcome that significantly weakens the eventual Democratic standard-bearer ahead of the fall campaign.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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