South Dakota's at-large congressional district has long favored Republican candidates due to the state's partisan composition, with Republicans holding a 65-5 majority in the state legislature and consistent double-digit margins in recent federal races. The June 2 Republican primary produced a clear nominee in Attorney General Marty Jackley, who secured roughly 80 percent of the vote and carries prior statewide name recognition plus an endorsement from former President Trump. The Democratic nominee, Nicole Gronli, faces structural headwinds in a district where registered Republicans substantially outnumber Democrats. Traders price the Republican Party at 93 percent because these baseline factors have produced reliable outcomes in comparable cycles, though late developments such as candidate withdrawal, major scandal, or an unusually strong national Democratic performance could still alter the result before the November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$16,933 Vol.
$16,933 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
93%
民主党
5%
$16,933 Vol.
$16,933 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
$9,474 Vol.
93%
民主党
$7,459 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).South Dakota's at-large congressional district has long favored Republican candidates due to the state's partisan composition, with Republicans holding a 65-5 majority in the state legislature and consistent double-digit margins in recent federal races. The June 2 Republican primary produced a clear nominee in Attorney General Marty Jackley, who secured roughly 80 percent of the vote and carries prior statewide name recognition plus an endorsement from former President Trump. The Democratic nominee, Nicole Gronli, faces structural headwinds in a district where registered Republicans substantially outnumber Democrats. Traders price the Republican Party at 93 percent because these baseline factors have produced reliable outcomes in comparable cycles, though late developments such as candidate withdrawal, major scandal, or an unusually strong national Democratic performance could still alter the result before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
音量
$16,933終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).South Dakota's at-large congressional district has long favored Republican candidates due to the state's partisan composition, with Republicans holding a 65-5 majority in the state legislature and consistent double-digit margins in recent federal races. The June 2 Republican primary produced a clear nominee in Attorney General Marty Jackley, who secured roughly 80 percent of the vote and carries prior statewide name recognition plus an endorsement from former President Trump. The Democratic nominee, Nicole Gronli, faces structural headwinds in a district where registered Republicans substantially outnumber Democrats. Traders price the Republican Party at 93 percent because these baseline factors have produced reliable outcomes in comparable cycles, though late developments such as candidate withdrawal, major scandal, or an unusually strong national Democratic performance could still alter the result before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$16,933終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...South Dakota's at-large congressional district has long favored Republican candidates due to the state's partisan composition, with Republicans holding a 65-5 majority in the state legislature and consistent double-digit margins in recent federal races. The June 2 Republican primary produced a clear nominee in Attorney General Marty Jackley, who secured roughly 80 percent of the vote and carries prior statewide name recognition plus an endorsement from former President Trump. The Democratic nominee, Nicole Gronli, faces structural headwinds in a district where registered Republicans substantially outnumber Democrats. Traders price the Republican Party at 93 percent because these baseline factors have produced reliable outcomes in comparable cycles, though late developments such as candidate withdrawal, major scandal, or an unusually strong national Democratic performance could still alter the result before the November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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