California's 4th congressional district remains a safe Democratic seat with a Cook PVI of D+17 and Democratic voter registration exceeding 40 percent. Incumbent Mike Thompson advanced from the June 2026 primary alongside fellow Democrat Eric Jones, while the leading Republican finished third and was eliminated under the state's top-two system. This matchup ensures a Democratic general-election winner in November absent unforeseen vacancies or withdrawals. Trader consensus reflects the structural barriers for Republicans in this wine-country and Sacramento-suburb district, including consistent partisan lean and Thompson's long incumbency. A late candidate replacement or major scandal could theoretically alter the outcome before Election Day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$13,012 Vol.
$13,012 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
96%
共和党
1%
$13,012 Vol.
$13,012 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$5,915 Vol.
96%
共和党
$7,097 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 4th congressional district remains a safe Democratic seat with a Cook PVI of D+17 and Democratic voter registration exceeding 40 percent. Incumbent Mike Thompson advanced from the June 2026 primary alongside fellow Democrat Eric Jones, while the leading Republican finished third and was eliminated under the state's top-two system. This matchup ensures a Democratic general-election winner in November absent unforeseen vacancies or withdrawals. Trader consensus reflects the structural barriers for Republicans in this wine-country and Sacramento-suburb district, including consistent partisan lean and Thompson's long incumbency. A late candidate replacement or major scandal could theoretically alter the outcome before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
音量
$13,012終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 4th congressional district remains a safe Democratic seat with a Cook PVI of D+17 and Democratic voter registration exceeding 40 percent. Incumbent Mike Thompson advanced from the June 2026 primary alongside fellow Democrat Eric Jones, while the leading Republican finished third and was eliminated under the state's top-two system. This matchup ensures a Democratic general-election winner in November absent unforeseen vacancies or withdrawals. Trader consensus reflects the structural barriers for Republicans in this wine-country and Sacramento-suburb district, including consistent partisan lean and Thompson's long incumbency. A late candidate replacement or major scandal could theoretically alter the outcome before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$13,012終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 4th congressional district remains a safe Democratic seat with a Cook PVI of D+17 and Democratic voter registration exceeding 40 percent. Incumbent Mike Thompson advanced from the June 2026 primary alongside fellow Democrat Eric Jones, while the leading Republican finished third and was eliminated under the state's top-two system. This matchup ensures a Democratic general-election winner in November absent unforeseen vacancies or withdrawals. Trader consensus reflects the structural barriers for Republicans in this wine-country and Sacramento-suburb district, including consistent partisan lean and Thompson's long incumbency. A late candidate replacement or major scandal could theoretically alter the outcome before Election Day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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