Maryland's 4th congressional district, anchored in Prince George's County suburbs of Washington, D.C., features a D+39 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Democratic dominance in recent cycles, including Glenn Ivey's 88.4% victory in 2024. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic for the November 3, 2026 general election. The June 23 Democratic primary features multiple challengers to the incumbent, yet the district's demographics and voting patterns severely constrain Republican prospects, with George McDermott as the likely nominee. Trader consensus around 92% for the Democratic nominee reflects these structural advantages. A shift would require an extraordinary development such as a major scandal, health crisis for the nominee, or unprecedented national political realignment before election day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$27,357 Vol.
$27,357 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
92%
共和党
6%
$27,357 Vol.
$27,357 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$8,107 Vol.
92%
共和党
$19,251 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland's 4th congressional district, anchored in Prince George's County suburbs of Washington, D.C., features a D+39 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Democratic dominance in recent cycles, including Glenn Ivey's 88.4% victory in 2024. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic for the November 3, 2026 general election. The June 23 Democratic primary features multiple challengers to the incumbent, yet the district's demographics and voting patterns severely constrain Republican prospects, with George McDermott as the likely nominee. Trader consensus around 92% for the Democratic nominee reflects these structural advantages. A shift would require an extraordinary development such as a major scandal, health crisis for the nominee, or unprecedented national political realignment before election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
音量
$27,357終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland's 4th congressional district, anchored in Prince George's County suburbs of Washington, D.C., features a D+39 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Democratic dominance in recent cycles, including Glenn Ivey's 88.4% victory in 2024. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic for the November 3, 2026 general election. The June 23 Democratic primary features multiple challengers to the incumbent, yet the district's demographics and voting patterns severely constrain Republican prospects, with George McDermott as the likely nominee. Trader consensus around 92% for the Democratic nominee reflects these structural advantages. A shift would require an extraordinary development such as a major scandal, health crisis for the nominee, or unprecedented national political realignment before election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$27,357終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Maryland's 4th congressional district, anchored in Prince George's County suburbs of Washington, D.C., features a D+39 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Democratic dominance in recent cycles, including Glenn Ivey's 88.4% victory in 2024. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic for the November 3, 2026 general election. The June 23 Democratic primary features multiple challengers to the incumbent, yet the district's demographics and voting patterns severely constrain Republican prospects, with George McDermott as the likely nominee. Trader consensus around 92% for the Democratic nominee reflects these structural advantages. A shift would require an extraordinary development such as a major scandal, health crisis for the nominee, or unprecedented national political realignment before election day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問