NY-15 remains a solidly Democratic district with a D+27 Partisan Voter Index, anchored in the Bronx, where the incumbent Ritchie Torres has held the seat since 2021 with large margins including 76.5% in the prior general election. Traders price the Democratic nominee at 94.3% to win the November 2026 general election because the district's voter composition and history consistently deliver overwhelming Democratic majorities, while the Republican primary produced only a nominal challenger. The Democratic primary on June 23, now just days away, features Torres as the heavy favorite over Michael Blake with early voting already underway. A primary upset or major scandal could theoretically open a path for Republicans, but such outcomes would require shifts far beyond current polling, fundraising, or turnout patterns in this low-competition environment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$23,538 Vol.
$23,538 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
94%
共和党
5%
$23,538 Vol.
$23,538 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$11,807 Vol.
94%
共和党
$11,731 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).NY-15 remains a solidly Democratic district with a D+27 Partisan Voter Index, anchored in the Bronx, where the incumbent Ritchie Torres has held the seat since 2021 with large margins including 76.5% in the prior general election. Traders price the Democratic nominee at 94.3% to win the November 2026 general election because the district's voter composition and history consistently deliver overwhelming Democratic majorities, while the Republican primary produced only a nominal challenger. The Democratic primary on June 23, now just days away, features Torres as the heavy favorite over Michael Blake with early voting already underway. A primary upset or major scandal could theoretically open a path for Republicans, but such outcomes would require shifts far beyond current polling, fundraising, or turnout patterns in this low-competition environment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
音量
$23,538終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).NY-15 remains a solidly Democratic district with a D+27 Partisan Voter Index, anchored in the Bronx, where the incumbent Ritchie Torres has held the seat since 2021 with large margins including 76.5% in the prior general election. Traders price the Democratic nominee at 94.3% to win the November 2026 general election because the district's voter composition and history consistently deliver overwhelming Democratic majorities, while the Republican primary produced only a nominal challenger. The Democratic primary on June 23, now just days away, features Torres as the heavy favorite over Michael Blake with early voting already underway. A primary upset or major scandal could theoretically open a path for Republicans, but such outcomes would require shifts far beyond current polling, fundraising, or turnout patterns in this low-competition environment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$23,538終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...NY-15 remains a solidly Democratic district with a D+27 Partisan Voter Index, anchored in the Bronx, where the incumbent Ritchie Torres has held the seat since 2021 with large margins including 76.5% in the prior general election. Traders price the Democratic nominee at 94.3% to win the November 2026 general election because the district's voter composition and history consistently deliver overwhelming Democratic majorities, while the Republican primary produced only a nominal challenger. The Democratic primary on June 23, now just days away, features Torres as the heavy favorite over Michael Blake with early voting already underway. A primary upset or major scandal could theoretically open a path for Republicans, but such outcomes would require shifts far beyond current polling, fundraising, or turnout patterns in this low-competition environment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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