NY-15 remains one of the most reliably Democratic congressional districts in the country, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+27 and a 2024 general election result in which incumbent Ritchie Torres secured 76 percent of the vote. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 94 percent implied probability of holding the seat in the November 2026 general election because the district’s Bronx-based electorate has produced consistent double-digit Democratic margins for years and the Republican primary field collapsed to a single unopposed candidate. The June 23 Democratic primary, in which Torres holds a commanding lead over Michael Blake, is viewed as the only remaining internal contest that could affect the nominee, yet even a primary upset would leave the seat in Democratic hands. The principal barriers to a Republican victory are the district’s structural partisan composition and the absence of any recent polling or fundraising data suggesting a competitive general-election environment. Late developments that could narrow the gap include an unforeseen scandal involving the Democratic nominee or an extraordinary national political shift capable of overcoming a 27-point partisan baseline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$23,538 Vol.
$23,538 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
94%
共和党
5%
$23,538 Vol.
$23,538 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$11,807 Vol.
94%
共和党
$11,731 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).NY-15 remains one of the most reliably Democratic congressional districts in the country, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+27 and a 2024 general election result in which incumbent Ritchie Torres secured 76 percent of the vote. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 94 percent implied probability of holding the seat in the November 2026 general election because the district’s Bronx-based electorate has produced consistent double-digit Democratic margins for years and the Republican primary field collapsed to a single unopposed candidate. The June 23 Democratic primary, in which Torres holds a commanding lead over Michael Blake, is viewed as the only remaining internal contest that could affect the nominee, yet even a primary upset would leave the seat in Democratic hands. The principal barriers to a Republican victory are the district’s structural partisan composition and the absence of any recent polling or fundraising data suggesting a competitive general-election environment. Late developments that could narrow the gap include an unforeseen scandal involving the Democratic nominee or an extraordinary national political shift capable of overcoming a 27-point partisan baseline.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
音量
$23,538終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).NY-15 remains one of the most reliably Democratic congressional districts in the country, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+27 and a 2024 general election result in which incumbent Ritchie Torres secured 76 percent of the vote. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 94 percent implied probability of holding the seat in the November 2026 general election because the district’s Bronx-based electorate has produced consistent double-digit Democratic margins for years and the Republican primary field collapsed to a single unopposed candidate. The June 23 Democratic primary, in which Torres holds a commanding lead over Michael Blake, is viewed as the only remaining internal contest that could affect the nominee, yet even a primary upset would leave the seat in Democratic hands. The principal barriers to a Republican victory are the district’s structural partisan composition and the absence of any recent polling or fundraising data suggesting a competitive general-election environment. Late developments that could narrow the gap include an unforeseen scandal involving the Democratic nominee or an extraordinary national political shift capable of overcoming a 27-point partisan baseline.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$23,538終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...NY-15 remains one of the most reliably Democratic congressional districts in the country, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+27 and a 2024 general election result in which incumbent Ritchie Torres secured 76 percent of the vote. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 94 percent implied probability of holding the seat in the November 2026 general election because the district’s Bronx-based electorate has produced consistent double-digit Democratic margins for years and the Republican primary field collapsed to a single unopposed candidate. The June 23 Democratic primary, in which Torres holds a commanding lead over Michael Blake, is viewed as the only remaining internal contest that could affect the nominee, yet even a primary upset would leave the seat in Democratic hands. The principal barriers to a Republican victory are the district’s structural partisan composition and the absence of any recent polling or fundraising data suggesting a competitive general-election environment. Late developments that could narrow the gap include an unforeseen scandal involving the Democratic nominee or an extraordinary national political shift capable of overcoming a 27-point partisan baseline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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