New York’s 12th congressional district, encompassing much of Manhattan, maintains a strongly Democratic partisan lean reflected in its D+33 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent general-election margins exceeding 30 points. With longtime Representative Jerry Nadler retiring, the June 23 Democratic primary features a competitive field including Assembly members Micah Lasher and Alex Bores, alongside Jack Schlossberg and George Conway; recent polls show the top contenders separated by only a few points amid high undecided shares. The Republican nominee faces structural headwinds in this urban district. Trader consensus pricing the Democratic nominee near 95% incorporates the district’s electoral history and limited GOP infrastructure, though an unusually fractured primary or late national shift could theoretically alter the outcome before November.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$20,211 Vol.
$20,211 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
95%
共和党
5%
$20,211 Vol.
$20,211 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$16,248 Vol.
95%
共和党
$3,963 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York’s 12th congressional district, encompassing much of Manhattan, maintains a strongly Democratic partisan lean reflected in its D+33 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent general-election margins exceeding 30 points. With longtime Representative Jerry Nadler retiring, the June 23 Democratic primary features a competitive field including Assembly members Micah Lasher and Alex Bores, alongside Jack Schlossberg and George Conway; recent polls show the top contenders separated by only a few points amid high undecided shares. The Republican nominee faces structural headwinds in this urban district. Trader consensus pricing the Democratic nominee near 95% incorporates the district’s electoral history and limited GOP infrastructure, though an unusually fractured primary or late national shift could theoretically alter the outcome before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
音量
$20,211終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York’s 12th congressional district, encompassing much of Manhattan, maintains a strongly Democratic partisan lean reflected in its D+33 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent general-election margins exceeding 30 points. With longtime Representative Jerry Nadler retiring, the June 23 Democratic primary features a competitive field including Assembly members Micah Lasher and Alex Bores, alongside Jack Schlossberg and George Conway; recent polls show the top contenders separated by only a few points amid high undecided shares. The Republican nominee faces structural headwinds in this urban district. Trader consensus pricing the Democratic nominee near 95% incorporates the district’s electoral history and limited GOP infrastructure, though an unusually fractured primary or late national shift could theoretically alter the outcome before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$20,211終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...New York’s 12th congressional district, encompassing much of Manhattan, maintains a strongly Democratic partisan lean reflected in its D+33 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent general-election margins exceeding 30 points. With longtime Representative Jerry Nadler retiring, the June 23 Democratic primary features a competitive field including Assembly members Micah Lasher and Alex Bores, alongside Jack Schlossberg and George Conway; recent polls show the top contenders separated by only a few points amid high undecided shares. The Republican nominee faces structural headwinds in this urban district. Trader consensus pricing the Democratic nominee near 95% incorporates the district’s electoral history and limited GOP infrastructure, though an unusually fractured primary or late national shift could theoretically alter the outcome before November.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問