The district's entrenched Democratic advantage, reflected in its D+32 partisan voter index and consistent historical performance, underpins trader consensus favoring a Democratic hold in the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Adriano Espaillat faces multiple primary challengers ahead of the June 23 contest, yet the fractured Democratic field and minimal Republican infrastructure limit crossover threats in this solidly blue New York City area. A Republican nominee has advanced but confronts structural barriers including low fundraising visibility and turnout patterns favoring Democrats. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a late primary upset producing a weakened nominee, a major scandal, or an unforeseen national political shift, though such developments remain low-probability given current conditions and district fundamentals.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$33,775 Vol.
$33,775 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
96%
共和党
5%
$33,775 Vol.
$33,775 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$21,733 Vol.
96%
共和党
$12,042 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's entrenched Democratic advantage, reflected in its D+32 partisan voter index and consistent historical performance, underpins trader consensus favoring a Democratic hold in the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Adriano Espaillat faces multiple primary challengers ahead of the June 23 contest, yet the fractured Democratic field and minimal Republican infrastructure limit crossover threats in this solidly blue New York City area. A Republican nominee has advanced but confronts structural barriers including low fundraising visibility and turnout patterns favoring Democrats. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a late primary upset producing a weakened nominee, a major scandal, or an unforeseen national political shift, though such developments remain low-probability given current conditions and district fundamentals.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
音量
$33,775終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's entrenched Democratic advantage, reflected in its D+32 partisan voter index and consistent historical performance, underpins trader consensus favoring a Democratic hold in the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Adriano Espaillat faces multiple primary challengers ahead of the June 23 contest, yet the fractured Democratic field and minimal Republican infrastructure limit crossover threats in this solidly blue New York City area. A Republican nominee has advanced but confronts structural barriers including low fundraising visibility and turnout patterns favoring Democrats. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a late primary upset producing a weakened nominee, a major scandal, or an unforeseen national political shift, though such developments remain low-probability given current conditions and district fundamentals.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$33,775終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The district's entrenched Democratic advantage, reflected in its D+32 partisan voter index and consistent historical performance, underpins trader consensus favoring a Democratic hold in the November 2026 general election. Incumbent Adriano Espaillat faces multiple primary challengers ahead of the June 23 contest, yet the fractured Democratic field and minimal Republican infrastructure limit crossover threats in this solidly blue New York City area. A Republican nominee has advanced but confronts structural barriers including low fundraising visibility and turnout patterns favoring Democrats. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a late primary upset producing a weakened nominee, a major scandal, or an unforeseen national political shift, though such developments remain low-probability given current conditions and district fundamentals.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問