Arizona's 9th congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat heading into the 2026 cycle, with incumbent Paul Gosar seeking another term after securing 65.3% in 2024. The district's R+15 partisan voter index and consistent Republican performance underpin trader consensus favoring the GOP at over 90%. Gosar faces limited primary opposition on July 21, while Democratic primary contender Danielle Sterbinsky has raised modest funds with no polling or endorsements signaling a competitive general election threat on November 3. Recent campaign finance data shows Gosar maintaining a substantial cash advantage. Factors that could narrow this lead include an unexpected primary surprise, a major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong Democratic national environment shifting voter turnout in western Maricopa County and surrounding areas.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
92%
民主党
8%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
$2,873 Vol.
92%
民主党
$3,996 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Arizona's 9th congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat heading into the 2026 cycle, with incumbent Paul Gosar seeking another term after securing 65.3% in 2024. The district's R+15 partisan voter index and consistent Republican performance underpin trader consensus favoring the GOP at over 90%. Gosar faces limited primary opposition on July 21, while Democratic primary contender Danielle Sterbinsky has raised modest funds with no polling or endorsements signaling a competitive general election threat on November 3. Recent campaign finance data shows Gosar maintaining a substantial cash advantage. Factors that could narrow this lead include an unexpected primary surprise, a major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong Democratic national environment shifting voter turnout in western Maricopa County and surrounding areas.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
音量
$6,869終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Arizona's 9th congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat heading into the 2026 cycle, with incumbent Paul Gosar seeking another term after securing 65.3% in 2024. The district's R+15 partisan voter index and consistent Republican performance underpin trader consensus favoring the GOP at over 90%. Gosar faces limited primary opposition on July 21, while Democratic primary contender Danielle Sterbinsky has raised modest funds with no polling or endorsements signaling a competitive general election threat on November 3. Recent campaign finance data shows Gosar maintaining a substantial cash advantage. Factors that could narrow this lead include an unexpected primary surprise, a major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong Democratic national environment shifting voter turnout in western Maricopa County and surrounding areas.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$6,869終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Arizona's 9th congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat heading into the 2026 cycle, with incumbent Paul Gosar seeking another term after securing 65.3% in 2024. The district's R+15 partisan voter index and consistent Republican performance underpin trader consensus favoring the GOP at over 90%. Gosar faces limited primary opposition on July 21, while Democratic primary contender Danielle Sterbinsky has raised modest funds with no polling or endorsements signaling a competitive general election threat on November 3. Recent campaign finance data shows Gosar maintaining a substantial cash advantage. Factors that could narrow this lead include an unexpected primary surprise, a major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, or an unusually strong Democratic national environment shifting voter turnout in western Maricopa County and surrounding areas.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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