Incumbent Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson is seeking re-election in Louisiana’s 4th congressional district, a seat with a consistent Republican voting history and partisan lean that favors GOP candidates. His February 2026 qualifying drew two Republican and two Democratic challengers, yet the race remains low-profile with no major primary threats or shifting voter coalitions reported. Traders price Republican victory at 93.5 percent, reflecting the district’s structural advantages, Johnson’s established name recognition, and the absence of competitive polling or fundraising data favoring opponents. Potential shifts could arise from a strong intra-party primary upset, late legal or personal developments affecting Johnson, or broader midterm turnout changes that narrow the margin, though these remain low-probability factors at present.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
94%
民主党
6%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
$3,176 Vol.
94%
民主党
$5,780 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson is seeking re-election in Louisiana’s 4th congressional district, a seat with a consistent Republican voting history and partisan lean that favors GOP candidates. His February 2026 qualifying drew two Republican and two Democratic challengers, yet the race remains low-profile with no major primary threats or shifting voter coalitions reported. Traders price Republican victory at 93.5 percent, reflecting the district’s structural advantages, Johnson’s established name recognition, and the absence of competitive polling or fundraising data favoring opponents. Potential shifts could arise from a strong intra-party primary upset, late legal or personal developments affecting Johnson, or broader midterm turnout changes that narrow the margin, though these remain low-probability factors at present.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
音量
$8,956終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson is seeking re-election in Louisiana’s 4th congressional district, a seat with a consistent Republican voting history and partisan lean that favors GOP candidates. His February 2026 qualifying drew two Republican and two Democratic challengers, yet the race remains low-profile with no major primary threats or shifting voter coalitions reported. Traders price Republican victory at 93.5 percent, reflecting the district’s structural advantages, Johnson’s established name recognition, and the absence of competitive polling or fundraising data favoring opponents. Potential shifts could arise from a strong intra-party primary upset, late legal or personal developments affecting Johnson, or broader midterm turnout changes that narrow the margin, though these remain low-probability factors at present.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$8,956終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson is seeking re-election in Louisiana’s 4th congressional district, a seat with a consistent Republican voting history and partisan lean that favors GOP candidates. His February 2026 qualifying drew two Republican and two Democratic challengers, yet the race remains low-profile with no major primary threats or shifting voter coalitions reported. Traders price Republican victory at 93.5 percent, reflecting the district’s structural advantages, Johnson’s established name recognition, and the absence of competitive polling or fundraising data favoring opponents. Potential shifts could arise from a strong intra-party primary upset, late legal or personal developments affecting Johnson, or broader midterm turnout changes that narrow the margin, though these remain low-probability factors at present.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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