Sweden’s September 13 parliamentary election produced a narrow opposition victory, with the Social Democrats-led bloc of S, V, MP, and C projected to secure 175-176 seats in the 349-seat Riksdag against 173-174 for the incumbent Tidö parties (M, SD, KD, L). SVT’s election model, drawing on 99%+ of ballots including late advance and overseas votes, assessed the probability of any Tidö reversal at under 0.1% once supplementary counting narrowed the gap to roughly three seats. Pre-election polling had shown a consistent though tightening opposition lead driven by voter priorities on the economy, crime, and migration, while Sweden Democrats support declined from 2022 levels. Remaining administrative tallies could still adjust the exact margin by one or two seats, yet the structural result of an opposition plurality now appears locked in.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日野党が3～4議席差で勝利 96.7%
野党が1〜2議席差 1.5%
ティードー 1〜2 <1%
野党が5〜6議席差 <1%
新規
新規
2026/09/30
野党が7議席以上
<1%
野党が5〜6議席差
<1%
野党が3～4議席差で勝利
97%
野党が1〜2議席差
1%
ティードー 1〜2
1%
ティード3〜4
<1%
ティド5議席以上
<1%
野党が3～4議席差で勝利 96.7%
野党が1〜2議席差 1.5%
ティードー 1〜2 <1%
野党が5〜6議席差 <1%
新規
新規
2026/09/30
野党が7議席以上
$710 Vol.
<1%
野党が5〜6議席差
$205 Vol.
<1%
野党が3～4議席差で勝利
$2,359 Vol.
97%
野党が1〜2議席差
$1,807 Vol.
1%
ティードー 1〜2
$838 Vol.
1%
ティード3〜4
$426 Vol.
<1%
ティド5議席以上
$29 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections were held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the difference in the number of seats won in the Riksdag between the Tidö parties and the opposition parties in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election.
For the purposes of this market, the “Tidö parties” are the four signatories of the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet): the Sweden Democrats (SD), the Moderate Party (M), the Christian Democrats (KD), and the Liberals (L).
For the purposes of this market, the “opposition parties” are the Social Democrats (S), the Left Party (V), the Green Party (MP), and the Centre Party (C).
Seats will be counted only where the final results attribute them to one of the eight named parties. Seats won by any party other than the eight named above will count toward neither group, regardless of any subsequent cooperation, endorsement, confidence agreement, or parliamentary-group arrangement.
If the Tidö parties and the opposition parties win an equal number of seats, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the final results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the final results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Sweden’s September 13 parliamentary election produced a narrow opposition victory, with the Social Democrats-led bloc of S, V, MP, and C projected to secure 175-176 seats in the 349-seat Riksdag against 173-174 for the incumbent Tidö parties (M, SD, KD, L). SVT’s election model, drawing on 99%+ of ballots including late advance and overseas votes, assessed the probability of any Tidö reversal at under 0.1% once supplementary counting narrowed the gap to roughly three seats. Pre-election polling had shown a consistent though tightening opposition lead driven by voter priorities on the economy, crime, and migration, while Sweden Democrats support declined from 2022 levels. Remaining administrative tallies could still adjust the exact margin by one or two seats, yet the structural result of an opposition plurality now appears locked in.
Parliamentary elections were held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the difference in the number of seats won in the Riksdag between the Tidö parties and the opposition parties in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election.
For the purposes of this market, the “Tidö parties” are the four signatories of the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet): the Sweden Democrats (SD), the Moderate Party (M), the Christian Democrats (KD), and the Liberals (L).
For the purposes of this market, the “opposition parties” are the Social Democrats (S), the Left Party (V), the Green Party (MP), and the Centre Party (C).
Seats will be counted only where the final results attribute them to one of the eight named parties. Seats won by any party other than the eight named above will count toward neither group, regardless of any subsequent cooperation, endorsement, confidence agreement, or parliamentary-group arrangement.
If the Tidö parties and the opposition parties win an equal number of seats, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the final results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the final results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve according to the difference in the number of seats won in the Riksdag between the Tidö parties and the opposition parties in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election.
For the purposes of this market, the “Tidö parties” are the four signatories of the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet): the Sweden Democrats (SD), the Moderate Party (M), the Christian Democrats (KD), and the Liberals (L).
For the purposes of this market, the “opposition parties” are the Social Democrats (S), the Left Party (V), the Green Party (MP), and the Centre Party (C).
Seats will be counted only where the final results attribute them to one of the eight named parties. Seats won by any party other than the eight named above will count toward neither group, regardless of any subsequent cooperation, endorsement, confidence agreement, or parliamentary-group arrangement.
If the Tidö parties and the opposition parties win an equal number of seats, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the final results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the final results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
マーケット開始日： Sep 16, 2026, 12:25 PM ET
音量
$6,374終了日
2026/10/01マーケット開始日
Sep 16, 2026, 12:25 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections were held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the difference in the number of seats won in the Riksdag between the Tidö parties and the opposition parties in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election.
For the purposes of this market, the “Tidö parties” are the four signatories of the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet): the Sweden Democrats (SD), the Moderate Party (M), the Christian Democrats (KD), and the Liberals (L).
For the purposes of this market, the “opposition parties” are the Social Democrats (S), the Left Party (V), the Green Party (MP), and the Centre Party (C).
Seats will be counted only where the final results attribute them to one of the eight named parties. Seats won by any party other than the eight named above will count toward neither group, regardless of any subsequent cooperation, endorsement, confidence agreement, or parliamentary-group arrangement.
If the Tidö parties and the opposition parties win an equal number of seats, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the final results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the final results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).Sweden’s September 13 parliamentary election produced a narrow opposition victory, with the Social Democrats-led bloc of S, V, MP, and C projected to secure 175-176 seats in the 349-seat Riksdag against 173-174 for the incumbent Tidö parties (M, SD, KD, L). SVT’s election model, drawing on 99%+ of ballots including late advance and overseas votes, assessed the probability of any Tidö reversal at under 0.1% once supplementary counting narrowed the gap to roughly three seats. Pre-election polling had shown a consistent though tightening opposition lead driven by voter priorities on the economy, crime, and migration, while Sweden Democrats support declined from 2022 levels. Remaining administrative tallies could still adjust the exact margin by one or two seats, yet the structural result of an opposition plurality now appears locked in.
Parliamentary elections were held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the difference in the number of seats won in the Riksdag between the Tidö parties and the opposition parties in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election.
For the purposes of this market, the “Tidö parties” are the four signatories of the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet): the Sweden Democrats (SD), the Moderate Party (M), the Christian Democrats (KD), and the Liberals (L).
For the purposes of this market, the “opposition parties” are the Social Democrats (S), the Left Party (V), the Green Party (MP), and the Centre Party (C).
Seats will be counted only where the final results attribute them to one of the eight named parties. Seats won by any party other than the eight named above will count toward neither group, regardless of any subsequent cooperation, endorsement, confidence agreement, or parliamentary-group arrangement.
If the Tidö parties and the opposition parties win an equal number of seats, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the final results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the final results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
This market will resolve according to the difference in the number of seats won in the Riksdag between the Tidö parties and the opposition parties in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election.
For the purposes of this market, the “Tidö parties” are the four signatories of the Tidö Agreement (Tidöavtalet): the Sweden Democrats (SD), the Moderate Party (M), the Christian Democrats (KD), and the Liberals (L).
For the purposes of this market, the “opposition parties” are the Social Democrats (S), the Left Party (V), the Green Party (MP), and the Centre Party (C).
Seats will be counted only where the final results attribute them to one of the eight named parties. Seats won by any party other than the eight named above will count toward neither group, regardless of any subsequent cooperation, endorsement, confidence agreement, or parliamentary-group arrangement.
If the Tidö parties and the opposition parties win an equal number of seats, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If the final results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the final results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
音量
$6,374終了日
2026/10/01マーケット開始日
Sep 16, 2026, 12:25 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Sweden’s September 13 parliamentary election produced a narrow opposition victory, with the Social Democrats-led bloc of S, V, MP, and C projected to secure 175-176 seats in the 349-seat Riksdag against 173-174 for the incumbent Tidö parties (M, SD, KD, L). SVT’s election model, drawing on 99%+ of ballots including late advance and overseas votes, assessed the probability of any Tidö reversal at under 0.1% once supplementary counting narrowed the gap to roughly three seats. Pre-election polling had shown a consistent though tightening opposition lead driven by voter priorities on the economy, crime, and migration, while Sweden Democrats support declined from 2022 levels. Remaining administrative tallies could still adjust the exact margin by one or two seats, yet the structural result of an opposition plurality now appears locked in.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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