The heavily Democratic tilt of Texas’s 33rd congressional district, reinforced by recent redistricting that added portions of the neighboring 32nd district, underpins the 91.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election. The new boundaries produced a district that favored Kamala Harris by roughly 33 points in 2024, yielding a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+18 and a solid-D rating. With the Democratic primary runoff between Colin Allred and Julie Johnson set for May 26 and Republican candidates advancing separately, traders view the general-election outcome as largely predetermined absent major shifts. Scenarios that could still alter the result include an unexpected Democratic scandal, unusually strong Republican turnout in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, or a broader national political realignment before Election Day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
92%
共和党
8%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
$2,553 Vol.
92%
共和党
$192 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The heavily Democratic tilt of Texas’s 33rd congressional district, reinforced by recent redistricting that added portions of the neighboring 32nd district, underpins the 91.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election. The new boundaries produced a district that favored Kamala Harris by roughly 33 points in 2024, yielding a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+18 and a solid-D rating. With the Democratic primary runoff between Colin Allred and Julie Johnson set for May 26 and Republican candidates advancing separately, traders view the general-election outcome as largely predetermined absent major shifts. Scenarios that could still alter the result include an unexpected Democratic scandal, unusually strong Republican turnout in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, or a broader national political realignment before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
音量
$2,745終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The heavily Democratic tilt of Texas’s 33rd congressional district, reinforced by recent redistricting that added portions of the neighboring 32nd district, underpins the 91.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election. The new boundaries produced a district that favored Kamala Harris by roughly 33 points in 2024, yielding a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+18 and a solid-D rating. With the Democratic primary runoff between Colin Allred and Julie Johnson set for May 26 and Republican candidates advancing separately, traders view the general-election outcome as largely predetermined absent major shifts. Scenarios that could still alter the result include an unexpected Democratic scandal, unusually strong Republican turnout in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, or a broader national political realignment before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$2,745終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The heavily Democratic tilt of Texas’s 33rd congressional district, reinforced by recent redistricting that added portions of the neighboring 32nd district, underpins the 91.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee in the November 2026 general election. The new boundaries produced a district that favored Kamala Harris by roughly 33 points in 2024, yielding a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+18 and a solid-D rating. With the Democratic primary runoff between Colin Allred and Julie Johnson set for May 26 and Republican candidates advancing separately, traders view the general-election outcome as largely predetermined absent major shifts. Scenarios that could still alter the result include an unexpected Democratic scandal, unusually strong Republican turnout in the Dallas-Fort Worth area, or a broader national political realignment before Election Day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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