**Incumbent Republican John Carter secured the party nomination in the March 2026 primary with roughly 60% of the vote after receiving an endorsement from President Trump, positioning him for the November 3 general election against Democratic nominee Justin Early.** The district's R+11 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Republican performance in recent cycles, including Carter's 2024 reelection margin above 30 points, underpin the strong trader consensus favoring the Republican Party. Early's primary victory consolidated the Democratic side but occurs in a district anchored in Williamson and Bell counties with suburban and military voter bases that have reliably supported GOP candidates. Race ratings from nonpartisan analysts classify the seat as safe or solid Republican. Potential shifts could arise from a significant national Democratic surge, late-breaking developments affecting Carter, or unusually elevated turnout among Democratic-leaning voters in the exurban and Fort Hood areas, though historical patterns and the compressed two-month window to Election Day limit realistic volatility.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$44,723 Vol.
$44,723 Vol.
2026/11/02
共和党
94%
民主党
7%
$44,723 Vol.
$44,723 Vol.
2026/11/02
共和党
$24,263 Vol.
94%
民主党
$20,461 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Incumbent Republican John Carter secured the party nomination in the March 2026 primary with roughly 60% of the vote after receiving an endorsement from President Trump, positioning him for the November 3 general election against Democratic nominee Justin Early.** The district's R+11 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Republican performance in recent cycles, including Carter's 2024 reelection margin above 30 points, underpin the strong trader consensus favoring the Republican Party. Early's primary victory consolidated the Democratic side but occurs in a district anchored in Williamson and Bell counties with suburban and military voter bases that have reliably supported GOP candidates. Race ratings from nonpartisan analysts classify the seat as safe or solid Republican. Potential shifts could arise from a significant national Democratic surge, late-breaking developments affecting Carter, or unusually elevated turnout among Democratic-leaning voters in the exurban and Fort Hood areas, though historical patterns and the compressed two-month window to Election Day limit realistic volatility.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
音量
$44,723終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Incumbent Republican John Carter secured the party nomination in the March 2026 primary with roughly 60% of the vote after receiving an endorsement from President Trump, positioning him for the November 3 general election against Democratic nominee Justin Early.** The district's R+11 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Republican performance in recent cycles, including Carter's 2024 reelection margin above 30 points, underpin the strong trader consensus favoring the Republican Party. Early's primary victory consolidated the Democratic side but occurs in a district anchored in Williamson and Bell counties with suburban and military voter bases that have reliably supported GOP candidates. Race ratings from nonpartisan analysts classify the seat as safe or solid Republican. Potential shifts could arise from a significant national Democratic surge, late-breaking developments affecting Carter, or unusually elevated turnout among Democratic-leaning voters in the exurban and Fort Hood areas, though historical patterns and the compressed two-month window to Election Day limit realistic volatility.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$44,723終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...**Incumbent Republican John Carter secured the party nomination in the March 2026 primary with roughly 60% of the vote after receiving an endorsement from President Trump, positioning him for the November 3 general election against Democratic nominee Justin Early.** The district's R+11 Partisan Voter Index and consistent Republican performance in recent cycles, including Carter's 2024 reelection margin above 30 points, underpin the strong trader consensus favoring the Republican Party. Early's primary victory consolidated the Democratic side but occurs in a district anchored in Williamson and Bell counties with suburban and military voter bases that have reliably supported GOP candidates. Race ratings from nonpartisan analysts classify the seat as safe or solid Republican. Potential shifts could arise from a significant national Democratic surge, late-breaking developments affecting Carter, or unusually elevated turnout among Democratic-leaning voters in the exurban and Fort Hood areas, though historical patterns and the compressed two-month window to Election Day limit realistic volatility.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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