TX-30 encompasses urban areas of Dallas and surrounding communities with a Cook PVI of D+25 and a majority Black and Hispanic electorate. These structural factors, combined with consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, underpin the 91.5% trader consensus for a Democratic winner in the November 2026 general election. The seat opened after incumbent Jasmine Crockett's retirement to pursue higher office, yet the Democratic primary produced a clear frontrunner in Frederick Haynes. Republicans advanced to a May 26 runoff, but the district's partisan composition and historical margins limit their general-election prospects. Late developments such as unusually low Democratic turnout or a national Republican wave could narrow the gap, though both remain low-probability scenarios based on current fundamentals.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
92%
共和党
8%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
$1,547 Vol.
92%
共和党
$1,991 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).TX-30 encompasses urban areas of Dallas and surrounding communities with a Cook PVI of D+25 and a majority Black and Hispanic electorate. These structural factors, combined with consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, underpin the 91.5% trader consensus for a Democratic winner in the November 2026 general election. The seat opened after incumbent Jasmine Crockett's retirement to pursue higher office, yet the Democratic primary produced a clear frontrunner in Frederick Haynes. Republicans advanced to a May 26 runoff, but the district's partisan composition and historical margins limit their general-election prospects. Late developments such as unusually low Democratic turnout or a national Republican wave could narrow the gap, though both remain low-probability scenarios based on current fundamentals.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
音量
$3,539終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).TX-30 encompasses urban areas of Dallas and surrounding communities with a Cook PVI of D+25 and a majority Black and Hispanic electorate. These structural factors, combined with consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, underpin the 91.5% trader consensus for a Democratic winner in the November 2026 general election. The seat opened after incumbent Jasmine Crockett's retirement to pursue higher office, yet the Democratic primary produced a clear frontrunner in Frederick Haynes. Republicans advanced to a May 26 runoff, but the district's partisan composition and historical margins limit their general-election prospects. Late developments such as unusually low Democratic turnout or a national Republican wave could narrow the gap, though both remain low-probability scenarios based on current fundamentals.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$3,539終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...TX-30 encompasses urban areas of Dallas and surrounding communities with a Cook PVI of D+25 and a majority Black and Hispanic electorate. These structural factors, combined with consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, underpin the 91.5% trader consensus for a Democratic winner in the November 2026 general election. The seat opened after incumbent Jasmine Crockett's retirement to pursue higher office, yet the Democratic primary produced a clear frontrunner in Frederick Haynes. Republicans advanced to a May 26 runoff, but the district's partisan composition and historical margins limit their general-election prospects. Late developments such as unusually low Democratic turnout or a national Republican wave could narrow the gap, though both remain low-probability scenarios based on current fundamentals.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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