Incumbent Democrat Pete Aguilar holds a commanding lead in California's 33rd congressional district, a seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+7 that has favored Democratic candidates by comfortable margins in recent cycles. Aguilar's long tenure since 2015, strong fundraising, and labor endorsements reinforce trader consensus around a Democratic victory in the November 2026 general election. The upcoming June 2 primary features limited opposition from other Democrats and several Republicans, but the district's partisan composition and historical voting patterns limit crossover appeal for challengers. Late developments such as an unexpected primary upset or major shifts in national midterm dynamics could narrow the gap, though current evidence points to structural advantages that have kept Republican odds low.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
93%
共和党
7%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
$2,772 Vol.
93%
共和党
$0 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Pete Aguilar holds a commanding lead in California's 33rd congressional district, a seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+7 that has favored Democratic candidates by comfortable margins in recent cycles. Aguilar's long tenure since 2015, strong fundraising, and labor endorsements reinforce trader consensus around a Democratic victory in the November 2026 general election. The upcoming June 2 primary features limited opposition from other Democrats and several Republicans, but the district's partisan composition and historical voting patterns limit crossover appeal for challengers. Late developments such as an unexpected primary upset or major shifts in national midterm dynamics could narrow the gap, though current evidence points to structural advantages that have kept Republican odds low.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
音量
$2,772終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Pete Aguilar holds a commanding lead in California's 33rd congressional district, a seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+7 that has favored Democratic candidates by comfortable margins in recent cycles. Aguilar's long tenure since 2015, strong fundraising, and labor endorsements reinforce trader consensus around a Democratic victory in the November 2026 general election. The upcoming June 2 primary features limited opposition from other Democrats and several Republicans, but the district's partisan composition and historical voting patterns limit crossover appeal for challengers. Late developments such as an unexpected primary upset or major shifts in national midterm dynamics could narrow the gap, though current evidence points to structural advantages that have kept Republican odds low.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$2,772終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Pete Aguilar holds a commanding lead in California's 33rd congressional district, a seat with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+7 that has favored Democratic candidates by comfortable margins in recent cycles. Aguilar's long tenure since 2015, strong fundraising, and labor endorsements reinforce trader consensus around a Democratic victory in the November 2026 general election. The upcoming June 2 primary features limited opposition from other Democrats and several Republicans, but the district's partisan composition and historical voting patterns limit crossover appeal for challengers. Late developments such as an unexpected primary upset or major shifts in national midterm dynamics could narrow the gap, though current evidence points to structural advantages that have kept Republican odds low.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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