Incumbent Democrat Pete Aguilar advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with a strong plurality in California's 33rd district, facing Republican Stephanie Vargas in the November general. Forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic, consistent with the district's D+7 Cook Partisan Voter Index and recent presidential voting patterns favoring Democrats by roughly 9-10 points. Aguilar's position as House Democratic Caucus chair, combined with over $3.9 million in fundraising and established name recognition across San Bernardino and Riverside counties, underpins trader consensus on a wide Democratic margin. A Republican victory would require an unusually large national swing or late-breaking disruption to the incumbent's standing in this low-competition environment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$17,877 Vol.
$17,877 Vol.
2026/11/02
民主党
95%
共和党
6%
$17,877 Vol.
$17,877 Vol.
2026/11/02
民主党
$7,029 Vol.
95%
共和党
$10,848 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Pete Aguilar advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with a strong plurality in California's 33rd district, facing Republican Stephanie Vargas in the November general. Forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic, consistent with the district's D+7 Cook Partisan Voter Index and recent presidential voting patterns favoring Democrats by roughly 9-10 points. Aguilar's position as House Democratic Caucus chair, combined with over $3.9 million in fundraising and established name recognition across San Bernardino and Riverside counties, underpins trader consensus on a wide Democratic margin. A Republican victory would require an unusually large national swing or late-breaking disruption to the incumbent's standing in this low-competition environment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
音量
$17,877終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Pete Aguilar advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with a strong plurality in California's 33rd district, facing Republican Stephanie Vargas in the November general. Forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic, consistent with the district's D+7 Cook Partisan Voter Index and recent presidential voting patterns favoring Democrats by roughly 9-10 points. Aguilar's position as House Democratic Caucus chair, combined with over $3.9 million in fundraising and established name recognition across San Bernardino and Riverside counties, underpins trader consensus on a wide Democratic margin. A Republican victory would require an unusually large national swing or late-breaking disruption to the incumbent's standing in this low-competition environment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$17,877終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Pete Aguilar advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with a strong plurality in California's 33rd district, facing Republican Stephanie Vargas in the November general. Forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic, consistent with the district's D+7 Cook Partisan Voter Index and recent presidential voting patterns favoring Democrats by roughly 9-10 points. Aguilar's position as House Democratic Caucus chair, combined with over $3.9 million in fundraising and established name recognition across San Bernardino and Riverside counties, underpins trader consensus on a wide Democratic margin. A Republican victory would require an unusually large national swing or late-breaking disruption to the incumbent's standing in this low-competition environment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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