Incumbent Democratic Representative Ted Lieu holds a commanding position in California's 36th congressional district due to the area's strong partisan lean, consistent historical margins exceeding 30 points, and the structural advantages of incumbency in a South Bay coastal seat with a Cook Partisan Voting Index favoring Democrats by roughly 21 points. Multiple Democratic candidates are competing in the June 2, 2026, top-two primary alongside a smaller Republican field, but primary dynamics and general-election turnout patterns reinforce expectations that a Democrat will advance and prevail. Trader consensus reflects these baseline factors, including Lieu's established record and the absence of competitive polling shifts or major campaign developments in recent weeks. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a significant personal scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, unusually high Republican mobilization tied to national conditions, or late primary surprises that alter voter perceptions ahead of the November general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
94%
共和党
6%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
$5,296 Vol.
94%
共和党
$4,386 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-36 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Representative Ted Lieu holds a commanding position in California's 36th congressional district due to the area's strong partisan lean, consistent historical margins exceeding 30 points, and the structural advantages of incumbency in a South Bay coastal seat with a Cook Partisan Voting Index favoring Democrats by roughly 21 points. Multiple Democratic candidates are competing in the June 2, 2026, top-two primary alongside a smaller Republican field, but primary dynamics and general-election turnout patterns reinforce expectations that a Democrat will advance and prevail. Trader consensus reflects these baseline factors, including Lieu's established record and the absence of competitive polling shifts or major campaign developments in recent weeks. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a significant personal scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, unusually high Republican mobilization tied to national conditions, or late primary surprises that alter voter perceptions ahead of the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-36 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
音量
$9,683終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-36 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Representative Ted Lieu holds a commanding position in California's 36th congressional district due to the area's strong partisan lean, consistent historical margins exceeding 30 points, and the structural advantages of incumbency in a South Bay coastal seat with a Cook Partisan Voting Index favoring Democrats by roughly 21 points. Multiple Democratic candidates are competing in the June 2, 2026, top-two primary alongside a smaller Republican field, but primary dynamics and general-election turnout patterns reinforce expectations that a Democrat will advance and prevail. Trader consensus reflects these baseline factors, including Lieu's established record and the absence of competitive polling shifts or major campaign developments in recent weeks. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a significant personal scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, unusually high Republican mobilization tied to national conditions, or late primary surprises that alter voter perceptions ahead of the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-36 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$9,683終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Representative Ted Lieu holds a commanding position in California's 36th congressional district due to the area's strong partisan lean, consistent historical margins exceeding 30 points, and the structural advantages of incumbency in a South Bay coastal seat with a Cook Partisan Voting Index favoring Democrats by roughly 21 points. Multiple Democratic candidates are competing in the June 2, 2026, top-two primary alongside a smaller Republican field, but primary dynamics and general-election turnout patterns reinforce expectations that a Democrat will advance and prevail. Trader consensus reflects these baseline factors, including Lieu's established record and the absence of competitive polling shifts or major campaign developments in recent weeks. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include a significant personal scandal or health event affecting the incumbent, unusually high Republican mobilization tied to national conditions, or late primary surprises that alter voter perceptions ahead of the November general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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