Democratic incumbent Zoe Lofgren advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary in California's 18th congressional district with 54.9% of the vote, joined by Republican challenger Shane Lewis at 29.3%. The district's D+17 Partisan Voter Index, encompassing parts of Santa Clara, Monterey, San Benito, and Santa Cruz counties, has delivered consistent Democratic margins in recent cycles, supported by all major forecasters rating the race Solid or Safe Democratic. Lofgren's substantial fundraising edge and long incumbency reinforce trader consensus on a Democratic hold. A Republican victory would require a significant late-cycle shift in turnout patterns or an unforeseen development such as a major scandal or national political realignment that overcomes the district's structural lean.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$40,034 Vol.
$40,034 Vol.
2026/11/02
民主党
97%
共和党
3%
$40,034 Vol.
$40,034 Vol.
2026/11/02
民主党
$20,829 Vol.
97%
共和党
$19,206 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Zoe Lofgren advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary in California's 18th congressional district with 54.9% of the vote, joined by Republican challenger Shane Lewis at 29.3%. The district's D+17 Partisan Voter Index, encompassing parts of Santa Clara, Monterey, San Benito, and Santa Cruz counties, has delivered consistent Democratic margins in recent cycles, supported by all major forecasters rating the race Solid or Safe Democratic. Lofgren's substantial fundraising edge and long incumbency reinforce trader consensus on a Democratic hold. A Republican victory would require a significant late-cycle shift in turnout patterns or an unforeseen development such as a major scandal or national political realignment that overcomes the district's structural lean.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
音量
$40,034終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Zoe Lofgren advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary in California's 18th congressional district with 54.9% of the vote, joined by Republican challenger Shane Lewis at 29.3%. The district's D+17 Partisan Voter Index, encompassing parts of Santa Clara, Monterey, San Benito, and Santa Cruz counties, has delivered consistent Democratic margins in recent cycles, supported by all major forecasters rating the race Solid or Safe Democratic. Lofgren's substantial fundraising edge and long incumbency reinforce trader consensus on a Democratic hold. A Republican victory would require a significant late-cycle shift in turnout patterns or an unforeseen development such as a major scandal or national political realignment that overcomes the district's structural lean.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$40,034終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Zoe Lofgren advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary in California's 18th congressional district with 54.9% of the vote, joined by Republican challenger Shane Lewis at 29.3%. The district's D+17 Partisan Voter Index, encompassing parts of Santa Clara, Monterey, San Benito, and Santa Cruz counties, has delivered consistent Democratic margins in recent cycles, supported by all major forecasters rating the race Solid or Safe Democratic. Lofgren's substantial fundraising edge and long incumbency reinforce trader consensus on a Democratic hold. A Republican victory would require a significant late-cycle shift in turnout patterns or an unforeseen development such as a major scandal or national political realignment that overcomes the district's structural lean.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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