The district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voting Index exceeding D+28 and consistent voter registration advantages, underpins the trader consensus favoring a Democratic victor at 94.5 percent. Incumbent Jimmy Gomez, first elected in 2017, enters the June 2, 2026, primary as the clear frontrunner against multiple Democratic challengers and Republican Calvin Lee, bolstered by name recognition and fundraising patterns typical of safe seats. Historical results show Democratic nominees routinely securing over 55 percent in general elections. Scenarios that could shift odds include an unexpected primary upset, a major scandal affecting the leading candidate, or a significant national political realignment before November, though such developments remain low-probability based on current indicators.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$24,119 Vol.
$24,119 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
95%
共和党
4%
$24,119 Vol.
$24,119 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$6,996 Vol.
95%
共和党
$17,124 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-34 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voting Index exceeding D+28 and consistent voter registration advantages, underpins the trader consensus favoring a Democratic victor at 94.5 percent. Incumbent Jimmy Gomez, first elected in 2017, enters the June 2, 2026, primary as the clear frontrunner against multiple Democratic challengers and Republican Calvin Lee, bolstered by name recognition and fundraising patterns typical of safe seats. Historical results show Democratic nominees routinely securing over 55 percent in general elections. Scenarios that could shift odds include an unexpected primary upset, a major scandal affecting the leading candidate, or a significant national political realignment before November, though such developments remain low-probability based on current indicators.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-34 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
音量
$24,119終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-34 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voting Index exceeding D+28 and consistent voter registration advantages, underpins the trader consensus favoring a Democratic victor at 94.5 percent. Incumbent Jimmy Gomez, first elected in 2017, enters the June 2, 2026, primary as the clear frontrunner against multiple Democratic challengers and Republican Calvin Lee, bolstered by name recognition and fundraising patterns typical of safe seats. Historical results show Democratic nominees routinely securing over 55 percent in general elections. Scenarios that could shift odds include an unexpected primary upset, a major scandal affecting the leading candidate, or a significant national political realignment before November, though such developments remain low-probability based on current indicators.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-34 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$24,119終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voting Index exceeding D+28 and consistent voter registration advantages, underpins the trader consensus favoring a Democratic victor at 94.5 percent. Incumbent Jimmy Gomez, first elected in 2017, enters the June 2, 2026, primary as the clear frontrunner against multiple Democratic challengers and Republican Calvin Lee, bolstered by name recognition and fundraising patterns typical of safe seats. Historical results show Democratic nominees routinely securing over 55 percent in general elections. Scenarios that could shift odds include an unexpected primary upset, a major scandal affecting the leading candidate, or a significant national political realignment before November, though such developments remain low-probability based on current indicators.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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