Incumbent Democrat Laura Friedman advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with over 52% of the vote against Republican Scott Meyers, who received about 17%, in California's 30th congressional district. The seat's strong Democratic lean, reflected in multiple forecasters' solid or safe ratings and Friedman's 2024 general election margin, underpins the 95.5% trader consensus for a Democratic victory. No major developments since the primary have shifted the race dynamics ahead of the November 3 general election. A Republican win would require an unprecedented reversal driven by factors such as a late scandal affecting Friedman, an unexpected national partisan swing, or turnout anomalies that overcome the district's established voting patterns.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$24,273 Vol.
$24,273 Vol.
2026/11/02
民主党
96%
共和党
4%
$24,273 Vol.
$24,273 Vol.
2026/11/02
民主党
$13,073 Vol.
96%
共和党
$11,200 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Laura Friedman advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with over 52% of the vote against Republican Scott Meyers, who received about 17%, in California's 30th congressional district. The seat's strong Democratic lean, reflected in multiple forecasters' solid or safe ratings and Friedman's 2024 general election margin, underpins the 95.5% trader consensus for a Democratic victory. No major developments since the primary have shifted the race dynamics ahead of the November 3 general election. A Republican win would require an unprecedented reversal driven by factors such as a late scandal affecting Friedman, an unexpected national partisan swing, or turnout anomalies that overcome the district's established voting patterns.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
音量
$24,273終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Laura Friedman advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with over 52% of the vote against Republican Scott Meyers, who received about 17%, in California's 30th congressional district. The seat's strong Democratic lean, reflected in multiple forecasters' solid or safe ratings and Friedman's 2024 general election margin, underpins the 95.5% trader consensus for a Democratic victory. No major developments since the primary have shifted the race dynamics ahead of the November 3 general election. A Republican win would require an unprecedented reversal driven by factors such as a late scandal affecting Friedman, an unexpected national partisan swing, or turnout anomalies that overcome the district's established voting patterns.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-30 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$24,273終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Laura Friedman advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary with over 52% of the vote against Republican Scott Meyers, who received about 17%, in California's 30th congressional district. The seat's strong Democratic lean, reflected in multiple forecasters' solid or safe ratings and Friedman's 2024 general election margin, underpins the 95.5% trader consensus for a Democratic victory. No major developments since the primary have shifted the race dynamics ahead of the November 3 general election. A Republican win would require an unprecedented reversal driven by factors such as a late scandal affecting Friedman, an unexpected national partisan swing, or turnout anomalies that overcome the district's established voting patterns.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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