Minnesota's 4th congressional district remains a strongly Democratic seat anchored by long-serving incumbent Betty McCollum, who has held the office since 2001 and faces only limited primary opposition ahead of the August 11, 2026, nominating contests. The district's urban and suburban composition in the Twin Cities area produces consistent Democratic margins in federal elections, reinforced by McCollum's established fundraising base and institutional support. Republican primary candidates, including Gene Rechtzigel, Paul Wikstrom, and Paul Xiong, have shown limited visibility or resources, leaving the general-election matchup with few indicators of competitiveness. Cook Political Report and similar nonpartisan ratings classify the race as safely Democratic. Trader consensus at 93.5% for the Democratic nominee reflects these structural advantages. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen event such as an incumbent withdrawal, major scandal, or health-related exit that clears the path for an unusually strong Republican recruit, though historical patterns in this district make such developments improbable before November 2026.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$19,970 Vol.
$19,970 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
94%
共和党
7%
$19,970 Vol.
$19,970 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$3,482 Vol.
94%
共和党
$16,488 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Minnesota's 4th congressional district remains a strongly Democratic seat anchored by long-serving incumbent Betty McCollum, who has held the office since 2001 and faces only limited primary opposition ahead of the August 11, 2026, nominating contests. The district's urban and suburban composition in the Twin Cities area produces consistent Democratic margins in federal elections, reinforced by McCollum's established fundraising base and institutional support. Republican primary candidates, including Gene Rechtzigel, Paul Wikstrom, and Paul Xiong, have shown limited visibility or resources, leaving the general-election matchup with few indicators of competitiveness. Cook Political Report and similar nonpartisan ratings classify the race as safely Democratic. Trader consensus at 93.5% for the Democratic nominee reflects these structural advantages. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen event such as an incumbent withdrawal, major scandal, or health-related exit that clears the path for an unusually strong Republican recruit, though historical patterns in this district make such developments improbable before November 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
音量
$19,970終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Minnesota's 4th congressional district remains a strongly Democratic seat anchored by long-serving incumbent Betty McCollum, who has held the office since 2001 and faces only limited primary opposition ahead of the August 11, 2026, nominating contests. The district's urban and suburban composition in the Twin Cities area produces consistent Democratic margins in federal elections, reinforced by McCollum's established fundraising base and institutional support. Republican primary candidates, including Gene Rechtzigel, Paul Wikstrom, and Paul Xiong, have shown limited visibility or resources, leaving the general-election matchup with few indicators of competitiveness. Cook Political Report and similar nonpartisan ratings classify the race as safely Democratic. Trader consensus at 93.5% for the Democratic nominee reflects these structural advantages. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen event such as an incumbent withdrawal, major scandal, or health-related exit that clears the path for an unusually strong Republican recruit, though historical patterns in this district make such developments improbable before November 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$19,970終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Minnesota's 4th congressional district remains a strongly Democratic seat anchored by long-serving incumbent Betty McCollum, who has held the office since 2001 and faces only limited primary opposition ahead of the August 11, 2026, nominating contests. The district's urban and suburban composition in the Twin Cities area produces consistent Democratic margins in federal elections, reinforced by McCollum's established fundraising base and institutional support. Republican primary candidates, including Gene Rechtzigel, Paul Wikstrom, and Paul Xiong, have shown limited visibility or resources, leaving the general-election matchup with few indicators of competitiveness. Cook Political Report and similar nonpartisan ratings classify the race as safely Democratic. Trader consensus at 93.5% for the Democratic nominee reflects these structural advantages. A realistic shift would require an unforeseen event such as an incumbent withdrawal, major scandal, or health-related exit that clears the path for an unusually strong Republican recruit, though historical patterns in this district make such developments improbable before November 2026.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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