Redistricting ordered by Utah courts in late 2025 created a new Democratic-leaning 1st District anchored in Salt Lake County, where Kamala Harris carried the seat by 24 points in the 2024 presidential election and forecasters now rate it Solid or Safe Democratic. Ben McAdams, the former U.S. representative who previously held overlapping territory, secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 primary with roughly 52-60% of the vote against more progressive challengers, bringing established name recognition and a sizable fundraising edge. The Republican nominee, Riley Owen, faces an open seat without an incumbent and trails significantly in resources. Trader consensus at 94.5% for Democrats reflects these structural and candidate fundamentals. A late national Republican surge, major scandal involving the Democratic nominee, or unexpected shifts in local turnout could narrow the margin, though historical precedent in comparable districts suggests limited realistic paths to an upset before November.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$42,063 Vol.
$42,063 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
95%
共和党
4%
$42,063 Vol.
$42,063 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$5,649 Vol.
95%
共和党
$36,414 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting ordered by Utah courts in late 2025 created a new Democratic-leaning 1st District anchored in Salt Lake County, where Kamala Harris carried the seat by 24 points in the 2024 presidential election and forecasters now rate it Solid or Safe Democratic. Ben McAdams, the former U.S. representative who previously held overlapping territory, secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 primary with roughly 52-60% of the vote against more progressive challengers, bringing established name recognition and a sizable fundraising edge. The Republican nominee, Riley Owen, faces an open seat without an incumbent and trails significantly in resources. Trader consensus at 94.5% for Democrats reflects these structural and candidate fundamentals. A late national Republican surge, major scandal involving the Democratic nominee, or unexpected shifts in local turnout could narrow the margin, though historical precedent in comparable districts suggests limited realistic paths to an upset before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ET
音量
$42,063終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting ordered by Utah courts in late 2025 created a new Democratic-leaning 1st District anchored in Salt Lake County, where Kamala Harris carried the seat by 24 points in the 2024 presidential election and forecasters now rate it Solid or Safe Democratic. Ben McAdams, the former U.S. representative who previously held overlapping territory, secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 primary with roughly 52-60% of the vote against more progressive challengers, bringing established name recognition and a sizable fundraising edge. The Republican nominee, Riley Owen, faces an open seat without an incumbent and trails significantly in resources. Trader consensus at 94.5% for Democrats reflects these structural and candidate fundamentals. A late national Republican surge, major scandal involving the Democratic nominee, or unexpected shifts in local turnout could narrow the margin, though historical precedent in comparable districts suggests limited realistic paths to an upset before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$42,063終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting ordered by Utah courts in late 2025 created a new Democratic-leaning 1st District anchored in Salt Lake County, where Kamala Harris carried the seat by 24 points in the 2024 presidential election and forecasters now rate it Solid or Safe Democratic. Ben McAdams, the former U.S. representative who previously held overlapping territory, secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 primary with roughly 52-60% of the vote against more progressive challengers, bringing established name recognition and a sizable fundraising edge. The Republican nominee, Riley Owen, faces an open seat without an incumbent and trails significantly in resources. Trader consensus at 94.5% for Democrats reflects these structural and candidate fundamentals. A late national Republican surge, major scandal involving the Democratic nominee, or unexpected shifts in local turnout could narrow the margin, though historical precedent in comparable districts suggests limited realistic paths to an upset before November.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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