Incumbent Democrat Juan Vargas secured the top spot in the June 2026 top-two primary with roughly 56.5% of the vote against Republican Jeff Belle’s 33%, advancing to the November general election in a district rated Solid or Safe Democratic by major forecasters. The seat’s D+11 partisan voter index, combined with Vargas’s 32-point margin in 2024 and consistent Democratic performance in recent presidential and statewide contests, underpins the 95% trader consensus for a Democratic victory. Belle’s limited fundraising has further reinforced perceptions of a low-competition race. A major scandal, health event, or dramatic national Republican surge could theoretically narrow the gap, though structural and historical factors make such shifts unlikely before November.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$47,505 Vol.
$47,505 Vol.
2026/11/02
民主党
95%
共和党
6%
$47,505 Vol.
$47,505 Vol.
2026/11/02
民主党
$32,488 Vol.
95%
共和党
$15,017 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-52 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Juan Vargas secured the top spot in the June 2026 top-two primary with roughly 56.5% of the vote against Republican Jeff Belle’s 33%, advancing to the November general election in a district rated Solid or Safe Democratic by major forecasters. The seat’s D+11 partisan voter index, combined with Vargas’s 32-point margin in 2024 and consistent Democratic performance in recent presidential and statewide contests, underpins the 95% trader consensus for a Democratic victory. Belle’s limited fundraising has further reinforced perceptions of a low-competition race. A major scandal, health event, or dramatic national Republican surge could theoretically narrow the gap, though structural and historical factors make such shifts unlikely before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-52 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
音量
$47,505終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-52 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Juan Vargas secured the top spot in the June 2026 top-two primary with roughly 56.5% of the vote against Republican Jeff Belle’s 33%, advancing to the November general election in a district rated Solid or Safe Democratic by major forecasters. The seat’s D+11 partisan voter index, combined with Vargas’s 32-point margin in 2024 and consistent Democratic performance in recent presidential and statewide contests, underpins the 95% trader consensus for a Democratic victory. Belle’s limited fundraising has further reinforced perceptions of a low-competition race. A major scandal, health event, or dramatic national Republican surge could theoretically narrow the gap, though structural and historical factors make such shifts unlikely before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-52 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$47,505終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Juan Vargas secured the top spot in the June 2026 top-two primary with roughly 56.5% of the vote against Republican Jeff Belle’s 33%, advancing to the November general election in a district rated Solid or Safe Democratic by major forecasters. The seat’s D+11 partisan voter index, combined with Vargas’s 32-point margin in 2024 and consistent Democratic performance in recent presidential and statewide contests, underpins the 95% trader consensus for a Democratic victory. Belle’s limited fundraising has further reinforced perceptions of a low-competition race. A major scandal, health event, or dramatic national Republican surge could theoretically narrow the gap, though structural and historical factors make such shifts unlikely before November.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問