Democratic incumbent Dave Min holds a commanding position in California’s 47th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, backed by the seat’s post-redistricting Democratic lean and his primary performance. The district, encompassing parts of coastal Orange County including Irvine and Laguna Beach, supported Kamala Harris by roughly 10 points in 2024 and carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+6. Min’s substantial fundraising edge, combined with nonpartisan ratings classifying the race as Solid or Safe Democratic, reinforces trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% implied probability for a Democratic outcome. The June 2026 top-two primary saw Min and Republican Jenny Le Roux advance comfortably. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unanticipated national partisan swing could still alter the result, though structural factors limit realistic pathways for a Republican flip.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$14,137 Vol.
$14,137 Vol.
2026/11/02
民主党
95%
共和党
6%
$14,137 Vol.
$14,137 Vol.
2026/11/02
民主党
$3,261 Vol.
95%
共和党
$10,876 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Dave Min holds a commanding position in California’s 47th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, backed by the seat’s post-redistricting Democratic lean and his primary performance. The district, encompassing parts of coastal Orange County including Irvine and Laguna Beach, supported Kamala Harris by roughly 10 points in 2024 and carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+6. Min’s substantial fundraising edge, combined with nonpartisan ratings classifying the race as Solid or Safe Democratic, reinforces trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% implied probability for a Democratic outcome. The June 2026 top-two primary saw Min and Republican Jenny Le Roux advance comfortably. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unanticipated national partisan swing could still alter the result, though structural factors limit realistic pathways for a Republican flip.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
音量
$14,137終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Dave Min holds a commanding position in California’s 47th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, backed by the seat’s post-redistricting Democratic lean and his primary performance. The district, encompassing parts of coastal Orange County including Irvine and Laguna Beach, supported Kamala Harris by roughly 10 points in 2024 and carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+6. Min’s substantial fundraising edge, combined with nonpartisan ratings classifying the race as Solid or Safe Democratic, reinforces trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% implied probability for a Democratic outcome. The June 2026 top-two primary saw Min and Republican Jenny Le Roux advance comfortably. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unanticipated national partisan swing could still alter the result, though structural factors limit realistic pathways for a Republican flip.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$14,137終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Dave Min holds a commanding position in California’s 47th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election, backed by the seat’s post-redistricting Democratic lean and his primary performance. The district, encompassing parts of coastal Orange County including Irvine and Laguna Beach, supported Kamala Harris by roughly 10 points in 2024 and carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+6. Min’s substantial fundraising edge, combined with nonpartisan ratings classifying the race as Solid or Safe Democratic, reinforces trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% implied probability for a Democratic outcome. The June 2026 top-two primary saw Min and Republican Jenny Le Roux advance comfortably. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unanticipated national partisan swing could still alter the result, though structural factors limit realistic pathways for a Republican flip.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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