Incumbent Democrat Josh Harder holds a commanding position in California's 9th congressional district due to its strong Democratic lean, reflected in a partisan voting index favoring the party and consistent Solid or Safe Democratic ratings from major forecasters. The June 2, 2026, top-two primary features Harder as the sole Democratic candidate against four Republicans, whose vote split under California's system reinforces his likely advancement to the November general election. Recent campaign finance data shows Harder's significant fundraising edge over fragmented opposition. Trader consensus pricing these outcomes at 93.5% for Democrats incorporates the district's post-redistricting overlap with prior boundaries and historical incumbent retention patterns, though late developments such as candidate withdrawals, major scandals, or shifts in national midterm dynamics could still alter the general election trajectory.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$15,059 Vol.
$15,059 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
94%
共和党
7%
$15,059 Vol.
$15,059 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$11,243 Vol.
94%
共和党
$3,817 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Josh Harder holds a commanding position in California's 9th congressional district due to its strong Democratic lean, reflected in a partisan voting index favoring the party and consistent Solid or Safe Democratic ratings from major forecasters. The June 2, 2026, top-two primary features Harder as the sole Democratic candidate against four Republicans, whose vote split under California's system reinforces his likely advancement to the November general election. Recent campaign finance data shows Harder's significant fundraising edge over fragmented opposition. Trader consensus pricing these outcomes at 93.5% for Democrats incorporates the district's post-redistricting overlap with prior boundaries and historical incumbent retention patterns, though late developments such as candidate withdrawals, major scandals, or shifts in national midterm dynamics could still alter the general election trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
音量
$15,059終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Josh Harder holds a commanding position in California's 9th congressional district due to its strong Democratic lean, reflected in a partisan voting index favoring the party and consistent Solid or Safe Democratic ratings from major forecasters. The June 2, 2026, top-two primary features Harder as the sole Democratic candidate against four Republicans, whose vote split under California's system reinforces his likely advancement to the November general election. Recent campaign finance data shows Harder's significant fundraising edge over fragmented opposition. Trader consensus pricing these outcomes at 93.5% for Democrats incorporates the district's post-redistricting overlap with prior boundaries and historical incumbent retention patterns, though late developments such as candidate withdrawals, major scandals, or shifts in national midterm dynamics could still alter the general election trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$15,059終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Josh Harder holds a commanding position in California's 9th congressional district due to its strong Democratic lean, reflected in a partisan voting index favoring the party and consistent Solid or Safe Democratic ratings from major forecasters. The June 2, 2026, top-two primary features Harder as the sole Democratic candidate against four Republicans, whose vote split under California's system reinforces his likely advancement to the November general election. Recent campaign finance data shows Harder's significant fundraising edge over fragmented opposition. Trader consensus pricing these outcomes at 93.5% for Democrats incorporates the district's post-redistricting overlap with prior boundaries and historical incumbent retention patterns, though late developments such as candidate withdrawals, major scandals, or shifts in national midterm dynamics could still alter the general election trajectory.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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