Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal holds a commanding position in California's 24th congressional district ahead of the November 3 general election, reflecting the seat's D+13 partisan voter index and his 62.7% victory in 2024. The June 2 top-two primary confirmed this edge, with Carbajal securing 54.4% against Republican Bob Smith at 35.9%, while multiple forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Democratic. Carbajal's substantial fundraising advantage and established voter base in a district spanning Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo, and Ventura counties underpin trader consensus on the Democratic outcome. A late scandal, health event, or dramatic national partisan swing could theoretically narrow the gap, though structural and historical patterns make such shifts improbable in the remaining campaign window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$50,498 Vol.
$50,498 Vol.
2026/11/02
民主党
98%
共和党
2%
$50,498 Vol.
$50,498 Vol.
2026/11/02
民主党
$32,263 Vol.
98%
共和党
$18,234 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal holds a commanding position in California's 24th congressional district ahead of the November 3 general election, reflecting the seat's D+13 partisan voter index and his 62.7% victory in 2024. The June 2 top-two primary confirmed this edge, with Carbajal securing 54.4% against Republican Bob Smith at 35.9%, while multiple forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Democratic. Carbajal's substantial fundraising advantage and established voter base in a district spanning Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo, and Ventura counties underpin trader consensus on the Democratic outcome. A late scandal, health event, or dramatic national partisan swing could theoretically narrow the gap, though structural and historical patterns make such shifts improbable in the remaining campaign window.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
音量
$50,498終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal holds a commanding position in California's 24th congressional district ahead of the November 3 general election, reflecting the seat's D+13 partisan voter index and his 62.7% victory in 2024. The June 2 top-two primary confirmed this edge, with Carbajal securing 54.4% against Republican Bob Smith at 35.9%, while multiple forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Democratic. Carbajal's substantial fundraising advantage and established voter base in a district spanning Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo, and Ventura counties underpin trader consensus on the Democratic outcome. A late scandal, health event, or dramatic national partisan swing could theoretically narrow the gap, though structural and historical patterns make such shifts improbable in the remaining campaign window.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$50,498終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal holds a commanding position in California's 24th congressional district ahead of the November 3 general election, reflecting the seat's D+13 partisan voter index and his 62.7% victory in 2024. The June 2 top-two primary confirmed this edge, with Carbajal securing 54.4% against Republican Bob Smith at 35.9%, while multiple forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Democratic. Carbajal's substantial fundraising advantage and established voter base in a district spanning Santa Barbara, San Luis Obispo, and Ventura counties underpin trader consensus on the Democratic outcome. A late scandal, health event, or dramatic national partisan swing could theoretically narrow the gap, though structural and historical patterns make such shifts improbable in the remaining campaign window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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