Republican Troy Downing, the incumbent in Montana’s 2nd Congressional District, secured his party’s nomination without opposition in the June 2 primary and enters the November general election as the clear frontrunner. The district’s R+15 Partisan Voter Index and consistent “Solid Republican” or “Safe Republican” ratings from nonpartisan forecasters reflect its strong historical support for GOP candidates. Democratic nominee Brian Miller, who prevailed in a three-way primary, faces structural headwinds in a district that has not elected a Democrat to the House in decades. Trader consensus at 91.5% Republican probability aligns with these fundamentals, though late developments such as an unexpected scandal, major national political shift, or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the margin before Election Day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$11,400 Vol.
$11,400 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
92%
民主党
7%
$11,400 Vol.
$11,400 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
$8,247 Vol.
92%
民主党
$3,153 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican Troy Downing, the incumbent in Montana’s 2nd Congressional District, secured his party’s nomination without opposition in the June 2 primary and enters the November general election as the clear frontrunner. The district’s R+15 Partisan Voter Index and consistent “Solid Republican” or “Safe Republican” ratings from nonpartisan forecasters reflect its strong historical support for GOP candidates. Democratic nominee Brian Miller, who prevailed in a three-way primary, faces structural headwinds in a district that has not elected a Democrat to the House in decades. Trader consensus at 91.5% Republican probability aligns with these fundamentals, though late developments such as an unexpected scandal, major national political shift, or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the margin before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
音量
$11,400終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican Troy Downing, the incumbent in Montana’s 2nd Congressional District, secured his party’s nomination without opposition in the June 2 primary and enters the November general election as the clear frontrunner. The district’s R+15 Partisan Voter Index and consistent “Solid Republican” or “Safe Republican” ratings from nonpartisan forecasters reflect its strong historical support for GOP candidates. Democratic nominee Brian Miller, who prevailed in a three-way primary, faces structural headwinds in a district that has not elected a Democrat to the House in decades. Trader consensus at 91.5% Republican probability aligns with these fundamentals, though late developments such as an unexpected scandal, major national political shift, or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the margin before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$11,400終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican Troy Downing, the incumbent in Montana’s 2nd Congressional District, secured his party’s nomination without opposition in the June 2 primary and enters the November general election as the clear frontrunner. The district’s R+15 Partisan Voter Index and consistent “Solid Republican” or “Safe Republican” ratings from nonpartisan forecasters reflect its strong historical support for GOP candidates. Democratic nominee Brian Miller, who prevailed in a three-way primary, faces structural headwinds in a district that has not elected a Democrat to the House in decades. Trader consensus at 91.5% Republican probability aligns with these fundamentals, though late developments such as an unexpected scandal, major national political shift, or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the margin before Election Day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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