Incumbent Democrat Sean Casten secured the nomination with over 75 percent in the March 2026 primary and enters the November general election against Republican nominee Niki Conforti in a district rated solidly Democratic by major forecasters. The seat carries a D+3 Partisan Voter Index based on recent presidential results, and Casten prevailed by a comfortable margin in 2024. These structural factors, combined with the absence of competitive polling shifts or major campaign developments since the primaries, underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at current levels. A Republican victory would require significant national tailwinds or unforeseen local disruptions to overcome the district’s baseline partisan composition and incumbent advantages.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$32,052 Vol.
$32,052 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
95%
共和党
5%
$32,052 Vol.
$32,052 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$11,925 Vol.
95%
共和党
$20,127 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Sean Casten secured the nomination with over 75 percent in the March 2026 primary and enters the November general election against Republican nominee Niki Conforti in a district rated solidly Democratic by major forecasters. The seat carries a D+3 Partisan Voter Index based on recent presidential results, and Casten prevailed by a comfortable margin in 2024. These structural factors, combined with the absence of competitive polling shifts or major campaign developments since the primaries, underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at current levels. A Republican victory would require significant national tailwinds or unforeseen local disruptions to overcome the district’s baseline partisan composition and incumbent advantages.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
音量
$32,052終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Sean Casten secured the nomination with over 75 percent in the March 2026 primary and enters the November general election against Republican nominee Niki Conforti in a district rated solidly Democratic by major forecasters. The seat carries a D+3 Partisan Voter Index based on recent presidential results, and Casten prevailed by a comfortable margin in 2024. These structural factors, combined with the absence of competitive polling shifts or major campaign developments since the primaries, underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at current levels. A Republican victory would require significant national tailwinds or unforeseen local disruptions to overcome the district’s baseline partisan composition and incumbent advantages.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$32,052終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Sean Casten secured the nomination with over 75 percent in the March 2026 primary and enters the November general election against Republican nominee Niki Conforti in a district rated solidly Democratic by major forecasters. The seat carries a D+3 Partisan Voter Index based on recent presidential results, and Casten prevailed by a comfortable margin in 2024. These structural factors, combined with the absence of competitive polling shifts or major campaign developments since the primaries, underpin trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee at current levels. A Republican victory would require significant national tailwinds or unforeseen local disruptions to overcome the district’s baseline partisan composition and incumbent advantages.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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