The Texas 4th congressional district's strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+12 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins for GOP candidates including Donald Trump in 2024, underpins the current market pricing. Incumbent Pat Fallon secured the Republican nomination with over 80 percent in the March primary against limited opposition, while Democratic nominee Jason Pearce has raised minimal funds ahead of the November general. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others classify the seat as solid or safe Republican. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with the district's voting patterns and lack of competitive polling. A late scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unusually large national Democratic wave could narrow the outcome, though such shifts would require substantial movement from established baselines.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$39,977 Vol.
$39,977 Vol.
2026/11/02
共和党
95%
民主党
6%
$39,977 Vol.
$39,977 Vol.
2026/11/02
共和党
$21,766 Vol.
95%
民主党
$18,211 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Texas 4th congressional district's strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+12 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins for GOP candidates including Donald Trump in 2024, underpins the current market pricing. Incumbent Pat Fallon secured the Republican nomination with over 80 percent in the March primary against limited opposition, while Democratic nominee Jason Pearce has raised minimal funds ahead of the November general. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others classify the seat as solid or safe Republican. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with the district's voting patterns and lack of competitive polling. A late scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unusually large national Democratic wave could narrow the outcome, though such shifts would require substantial movement from established baselines.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
音量
$39,977終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Texas 4th congressional district's strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+12 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins for GOP candidates including Donald Trump in 2024, underpins the current market pricing. Incumbent Pat Fallon secured the Republican nomination with over 80 percent in the March primary against limited opposition, while Democratic nominee Jason Pearce has raised minimal funds ahead of the November general. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others classify the seat as solid or safe Republican. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with the district's voting patterns and lack of competitive polling. A late scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unusually large national Democratic wave could narrow the outcome, though such shifts would require substantial movement from established baselines.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$39,977終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...The Texas 4th congressional district's strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+12 Partisan Voter Index and consistent double-digit margins for GOP candidates including Donald Trump in 2024, underpins the current market pricing. Incumbent Pat Fallon secured the Republican nomination with over 80 percent in the March primary against limited opposition, while Democratic nominee Jason Pearce has raised minimal funds ahead of the November general. Nonpartisan ratings from Cook, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and others classify the seat as solid or safe Republican. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with the district's voting patterns and lack of competitive polling. A late scandal, health event affecting the incumbent, or an unusually large national Democratic wave could narrow the outcome, though such shifts would require substantial movement from established baselines.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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