The strong Republican lean of Texas's 4th Congressional District, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent past election margins exceeding 20 points for GOP candidates, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. Incumbent Pat Fallon secured his party's nomination in the March 3 primary with little opposition, while Democrat Jason Pearce advanced narrowly from his contest. With the November 3 general election still months away and no major shifts in polling, endorsements, or district dynamics reported in recent weeks, the implied probability aligns with historical base rates for similar safe seats. Late developments such as national economic conditions or candidate-specific events could still influence turnout in this exurban and rural district stretching from Dallas suburbs toward the Arkansas border.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
86%
民主党
15%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
$1,664 Vol.
86%
民主党
$1,842 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Republican lean of Texas's 4th Congressional District, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent past election margins exceeding 20 points for GOP candidates, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. Incumbent Pat Fallon secured his party's nomination in the March 3 primary with little opposition, while Democrat Jason Pearce advanced narrowly from his contest. With the November 3 general election still months away and no major shifts in polling, endorsements, or district dynamics reported in recent weeks, the implied probability aligns with historical base rates for similar safe seats. Late developments such as national economic conditions or candidate-specific events could still influence turnout in this exurban and rural district stretching from Dallas suburbs toward the Arkansas border.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
音量
$3,506終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Republican lean of Texas's 4th Congressional District, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent past election margins exceeding 20 points for GOP candidates, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. Incumbent Pat Fallon secured his party's nomination in the March 3 primary with little opposition, while Democrat Jason Pearce advanced narrowly from his contest. With the November 3 general election still months away and no major shifts in polling, endorsements, or district dynamics reported in recent weeks, the implied probability aligns with historical base rates for similar safe seats. Late developments such as national economic conditions or candidate-specific events could still influence turnout in this exurban and rural district stretching from Dallas suburbs toward the Arkansas border.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$3,506終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The strong Republican lean of Texas's 4th Congressional District, reflected in its partisan voting index and consistent past election margins exceeding 20 points for GOP candidates, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. Incumbent Pat Fallon secured his party's nomination in the March 3 primary with little opposition, while Democrat Jason Pearce advanced narrowly from his contest. With the November 3 general election still months away and no major shifts in polling, endorsements, or district dynamics reported in recent weeks, the implied probability aligns with historical base rates for similar safe seats. Late developments such as national economic conditions or candidate-specific events could still influence turnout in this exurban and rural district stretching from Dallas suburbs toward the Arkansas border.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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