Incumbent Republican Bruce Westerman faces Democrat James Russell in the November 2026 general election for Arkansas’s 4th congressional district. The seat has delivered consistent Republican majorities exceeding 70 percent in recent cycles, reflecting the district’s rural and southwestern Arkansas voter base. Westerman ran unopposed in the Republican primary while Russell secured the Democratic nomination after a March 2026 primary contest. These structural factors, combined with the absence of competitive polling shifts or major campaign developments in the past month, underpin trader consensus on the outcome. Late-cycle national swings, candidate health issues, or unusually high Democratic turnout remain the primary variables that could narrow the margin before election day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$15,830 Vol.
$15,830 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
94%
民主党
4%
$15,830 Vol.
$15,830 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
$9,581 Vol.
94%
民主党
$6,248 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Bruce Westerman faces Democrat James Russell in the November 2026 general election for Arkansas’s 4th congressional district. The seat has delivered consistent Republican majorities exceeding 70 percent in recent cycles, reflecting the district’s rural and southwestern Arkansas voter base. Westerman ran unopposed in the Republican primary while Russell secured the Democratic nomination after a March 2026 primary contest. These structural factors, combined with the absence of competitive polling shifts or major campaign developments in the past month, underpin trader consensus on the outcome. Late-cycle national swings, candidate health issues, or unusually high Democratic turnout remain the primary variables that could narrow the margin before election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
音量
$15,830終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Bruce Westerman faces Democrat James Russell in the November 2026 general election for Arkansas’s 4th congressional district. The seat has delivered consistent Republican majorities exceeding 70 percent in recent cycles, reflecting the district’s rural and southwestern Arkansas voter base. Westerman ran unopposed in the Republican primary while Russell secured the Democratic nomination after a March 2026 primary contest. These structural factors, combined with the absence of competitive polling shifts or major campaign developments in the past month, underpin trader consensus on the outcome. Late-cycle national swings, candidate health issues, or unusually high Democratic turnout remain the primary variables that could narrow the margin before election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$15,830終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Bruce Westerman faces Democrat James Russell in the November 2026 general election for Arkansas’s 4th congressional district. The seat has delivered consistent Republican majorities exceeding 70 percent in recent cycles, reflecting the district’s rural and southwestern Arkansas voter base. Westerman ran unopposed in the Republican primary while Russell secured the Democratic nomination after a March 2026 primary contest. These structural factors, combined with the absence of competitive polling shifts or major campaign developments in the past month, underpin trader consensus on the outcome. Late-cycle national swings, candidate health issues, or unusually high Democratic turnout remain the primary variables that could narrow the margin before election day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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