Incumbent Republican Mary Miller secured her party's nomination with over 73 percent in the March 2026 primary for Illinois's 15th congressional district, facing Democratic nominee Jennifer Todd in the November general election. The rural, central Illinois district carries a strong Republican lean, reflected in its Solid R rating and Miller's prior unopposed reelection. Traders assign the Republican Party a 93.5 percent implied probability of victory due to this structural advantage, incumbency, and limited Democratic infrastructure in the area. A late scandal, significant health event, or unforeseen national Democratic surge could narrow the margin, though such shifts remain uncommon in districts with this partisan baseline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$22,472 Vol.
$22,472 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
94%
民主党
7%
$22,472 Vol.
$22,472 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
$16,019 Vol.
94%
民主党
$6,453 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mary Miller secured her party's nomination with over 73 percent in the March 2026 primary for Illinois's 15th congressional district, facing Democratic nominee Jennifer Todd in the November general election. The rural, central Illinois district carries a strong Republican lean, reflected in its Solid R rating and Miller's prior unopposed reelection. Traders assign the Republican Party a 93.5 percent implied probability of victory due to this structural advantage, incumbency, and limited Democratic infrastructure in the area. A late scandal, significant health event, or unforeseen national Democratic surge could narrow the margin, though such shifts remain uncommon in districts with this partisan baseline.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
音量
$22,472終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mary Miller secured her party's nomination with over 73 percent in the March 2026 primary for Illinois's 15th congressional district, facing Democratic nominee Jennifer Todd in the November general election. The rural, central Illinois district carries a strong Republican lean, reflected in its Solid R rating and Miller's prior unopposed reelection. Traders assign the Republican Party a 93.5 percent implied probability of victory due to this structural advantage, incumbency, and limited Democratic infrastructure in the area. A late scandal, significant health event, or unforeseen national Democratic surge could narrow the margin, though such shifts remain uncommon in districts with this partisan baseline.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$22,472終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Mary Miller secured her party's nomination with over 73 percent in the March 2026 primary for Illinois's 15th congressional district, facing Democratic nominee Jennifer Todd in the November general election. The rural, central Illinois district carries a strong Republican lean, reflected in its Solid R rating and Miller's prior unopposed reelection. Traders assign the Republican Party a 93.5 percent implied probability of victory due to this structural advantage, incumbency, and limited Democratic infrastructure in the area. A late scandal, significant health event, or unforeseen national Democratic surge could narrow the margin, though such shifts remain uncommon in districts with this partisan baseline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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