Cait Conley holds a modest edge in NY-17 trader pricing because the Hudson Valley swing district voted narrowly for Kamala Harris in 2024 and rates as a toss-up across forecasters including Cook Political Report. Conley, an Army veteran and former national security official, secured the Democratic nomination in June after a crowded primary and has positioned herself as a moderate focused on constituent priorities. Incumbent Mike Lawler, a two-term Republican emphasizing law enforcement support and independent appeal, benefits from his record of outperforming the district's presidential lean but faces headwinds from midterm dynamics where the president's party often loses ground. Mixed polling—one survey showed Lawler ahead among independents while another favored Conley—combined with heavy outside spending and the race's potential impact on House control, keeps the outcome closely contested heading into November.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$15,398 Vol.
$15,398 Vol.
2026/11/03
ケイト・コンリー（民主党）
56%
マイク・ローラー（共和党）
41%
$15,398 Vol.
$15,398 Vol.
2026/11/03
ケイト・コンリー（民主党）
$6,471 Vol.
56%
マイク・ローラー（共和党）
$8,927 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Cait Conley holds a modest edge in NY-17 trader pricing because the Hudson Valley swing district voted narrowly for Kamala Harris in 2024 and rates as a toss-up across forecasters including Cook Political Report. Conley, an Army veteran and former national security official, secured the Democratic nomination in June after a crowded primary and has positioned herself as a moderate focused on constituent priorities. Incumbent Mike Lawler, a two-term Republican emphasizing law enforcement support and independent appeal, benefits from his record of outperforming the district's presidential lean but faces headwinds from midterm dynamics where the president's party often loses ground. Mixed polling—one survey showed Lawler ahead among independents while another favored Conley—combined with heavy outside spending and the race's potential impact on House control, keeps the outcome closely contested heading into November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
音量
$15,398終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Cait Conley holds a modest edge in NY-17 trader pricing because the Hudson Valley swing district voted narrowly for Kamala Harris in 2024 and rates as a toss-up across forecasters including Cook Political Report. Conley, an Army veteran and former national security official, secured the Democratic nomination in June after a crowded primary and has positioned herself as a moderate focused on constituent priorities. Incumbent Mike Lawler, a two-term Republican emphasizing law enforcement support and independent appeal, benefits from his record of outperforming the district's presidential lean but faces headwinds from midterm dynamics where the president's party often loses ground. Mixed polling—one survey showed Lawler ahead among independents while another favored Conley—combined with heavy outside spending and the race's potential impact on House control, keeps the outcome closely contested heading into November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$15,398終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Cait Conley holds a modest edge in NY-17 trader pricing because the Hudson Valley swing district voted narrowly for Kamala Harris in 2024 and rates as a toss-up across forecasters including Cook Political Report. Conley, an Army veteran and former national security official, secured the Democratic nomination in June after a crowded primary and has positioned herself as a moderate focused on constituent priorities. Incumbent Mike Lawler, a two-term Republican emphasizing law enforcement support and independent appeal, benefits from his record of outperforming the district's presidential lean but faces headwinds from midterm dynamics where the president's party often loses ground. Mixed polling—one survey showed Lawler ahead among independents while another favored Conley—combined with heavy outside spending and the race's potential impact on House control, keeps the outcome closely contested heading into November.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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