Cait Conley secured the Democratic nomination in June after defeating multiple rivals in the NY-17 primary, positioning the Army veteran and former National Security Council official as the challenger to incumbent Republican Mike Lawler in this Hudson Valley swing district. The race ranks among the most competitive House contests, rated a toss-up by Cook Political Report and similar forecasters, with roughly 80,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans and a narrow 2024 presidential margin favoring Democrats. Lawler has emphasized his record of constituent service and cross-aisle work, while recent independent polling shows the candidates trading narrow leads amid heavy outside spending. Traders assign Conley a modest edge consistent with the district's partisan composition and midterm dynamics, though the outcome remains highly sensitive to turnout among independents and suburban voters ahead of the November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$15,358 Vol.
$15,358 Vol.
2026/11/03
ケイト・コンリー（民主党）
56%
マイク・ローラー（共和党）
41%
$15,358 Vol.
$15,358 Vol.
2026/11/03
ケイト・コンリー（民主党）
$6,436 Vol.
56%
マイク・ローラー（共和党）
$8,922 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Cait Conley secured the Democratic nomination in June after defeating multiple rivals in the NY-17 primary, positioning the Army veteran and former National Security Council official as the challenger to incumbent Republican Mike Lawler in this Hudson Valley swing district. The race ranks among the most competitive House contests, rated a toss-up by Cook Political Report and similar forecasters, with roughly 80,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans and a narrow 2024 presidential margin favoring Democrats. Lawler has emphasized his record of constituent service and cross-aisle work, while recent independent polling shows the candidates trading narrow leads amid heavy outside spending. Traders assign Conley a modest edge consistent with the district's partisan composition and midterm dynamics, though the outcome remains highly sensitive to turnout among independents and suburban voters ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
音量
$15,358終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Cait Conley secured the Democratic nomination in June after defeating multiple rivals in the NY-17 primary, positioning the Army veteran and former National Security Council official as the challenger to incumbent Republican Mike Lawler in this Hudson Valley swing district. The race ranks among the most competitive House contests, rated a toss-up by Cook Political Report and similar forecasters, with roughly 80,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans and a narrow 2024 presidential margin favoring Democrats. Lawler has emphasized his record of constituent service and cross-aisle work, while recent independent polling shows the candidates trading narrow leads amid heavy outside spending. Traders assign Conley a modest edge consistent with the district's partisan composition and midterm dynamics, though the outcome remains highly sensitive to turnout among independents and suburban voters ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$15,358終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Cait Conley secured the Democratic nomination in June after defeating multiple rivals in the NY-17 primary, positioning the Army veteran and former National Security Council official as the challenger to incumbent Republican Mike Lawler in this Hudson Valley swing district. The race ranks among the most competitive House contests, rated a toss-up by Cook Political Report and similar forecasters, with roughly 80,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans and a narrow 2024 presidential margin favoring Democrats. Lawler has emphasized his record of constituent service and cross-aisle work, while recent independent polling shows the candidates trading narrow leads amid heavy outside spending. Traders assign Conley a modest edge consistent with the district's partisan composition and midterm dynamics, though the outcome remains highly sensitive to turnout among independents and suburban voters ahead of the November 3 general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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