Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan secured a 14-point victory in 2024 in a district that leaned only modestly toward Democrats in the presidential race, establishing a strong base for his 2026 reelection bid against Republican challenger Jackie Auringer. Cook Political Report and Inside Elections rate the contest Solid Democratic, citing limited Republican recruitment and the absence of a contested GOP primary ahead of the June 23 vote. Auringer, a businesswoman who entered the race in April, faces an early general election environment where polling and fundraising trends continue to favor the incumbent. Trader consensus at 62.3% for Democrats versus 12.3% for Republicans aligns with these structural advantages and historical midterm patterns for sitting members in similar districts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$33,316 Vol.
$33,316 Vol.
2026/11/04
民主党
63%
共和党
12%
$33,316 Vol.
$33,316 Vol.
2026/11/04
民主党
$32,013 Vol.
63%
共和党
$1,303 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan secured a 14-point victory in 2024 in a district that leaned only modestly toward Democrats in the presidential race, establishing a strong base for his 2026 reelection bid against Republican challenger Jackie Auringer. Cook Political Report and Inside Elections rate the contest Solid Democratic, citing limited Republican recruitment and the absence of a contested GOP primary ahead of the June 23 vote. Auringer, a businesswoman who entered the race in April, faces an early general election environment where polling and fundraising trends continue to favor the incumbent. Trader consensus at 62.3% for Democrats versus 12.3% for Republicans aligns with these structural advantages and historical midterm patterns for sitting members in similar districts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
音量
$33,316終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan secured a 14-point victory in 2024 in a district that leaned only modestly toward Democrats in the presidential race, establishing a strong base for his 2026 reelection bid against Republican challenger Jackie Auringer. Cook Political Report and Inside Elections rate the contest Solid Democratic, citing limited Republican recruitment and the absence of a contested GOP primary ahead of the June 23 vote. Auringer, a businesswoman who entered the race in April, faces an early general election environment where polling and fundraising trends continue to favor the incumbent. Trader consensus at 62.3% for Democrats versus 12.3% for Republicans aligns with these structural advantages and historical midterm patterns for sitting members in similar districts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$33,316終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan secured a 14-point victory in 2024 in a district that leaned only modestly toward Democrats in the presidential race, establishing a strong base for his 2026 reelection bid against Republican challenger Jackie Auringer. Cook Political Report and Inside Elections rate the contest Solid Democratic, citing limited Republican recruitment and the absence of a contested GOP primary ahead of the June 23 vote. Auringer, a businesswoman who entered the race in April, faces an early general election environment where polling and fundraising trends continue to favor the incumbent. Trader consensus at 62.3% for Democrats versus 12.3% for Republicans aligns with these structural advantages and historical midterm patterns for sitting members in similar districts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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