The strong Republican lean of South Carolina's 4th Congressional District, reflected in its R+11 partisan voting index and consistent ratings as a solid or safe Republican seat by forecasters, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 88%. Incumbent William Timmons, who won 59.7% in 2024, faces a June 9 primary against challengers but holds a clear advantage in a district encompassing Greenville and Spartanburg counties with longstanding GOP voter registration edges. Democratic nominee Courtney McClain faces structural barriers typical of the district's electoral history, with no recent polling or events indicating a competitive general election shift before November 3. The wisdom of crowds in this market aligns with base rates for similar safe seats.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$12,526 Vol.
$12,526 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
88%
民主党
11%
$12,526 Vol.
$12,526 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
$10,244 Vol.
88%
民主党
$2,282 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Republican lean of South Carolina's 4th Congressional District, reflected in its R+11 partisan voting index and consistent ratings as a solid or safe Republican seat by forecasters, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 88%. Incumbent William Timmons, who won 59.7% in 2024, faces a June 9 primary against challengers but holds a clear advantage in a district encompassing Greenville and Spartanburg counties with longstanding GOP voter registration edges. Democratic nominee Courtney McClain faces structural barriers typical of the district's electoral history, with no recent polling or events indicating a competitive general election shift before November 3. The wisdom of crowds in this market aligns with base rates for similar safe seats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
音量
$12,526終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The strong Republican lean of South Carolina's 4th Congressional District, reflected in its R+11 partisan voting index and consistent ratings as a solid or safe Republican seat by forecasters, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 88%. Incumbent William Timmons, who won 59.7% in 2024, faces a June 9 primary against challengers but holds a clear advantage in a district encompassing Greenville and Spartanburg counties with longstanding GOP voter registration edges. Democratic nominee Courtney McClain faces structural barriers typical of the district's electoral history, with no recent polling or events indicating a competitive general election shift before November 3. The wisdom of crowds in this market aligns with base rates for similar safe seats.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$12,526終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The strong Republican lean of South Carolina's 4th Congressional District, reflected in its R+11 partisan voting index and consistent ratings as a solid or safe Republican seat by forecasters, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 88%. Incumbent William Timmons, who won 59.7% in 2024, faces a June 9 primary against challengers but holds a clear advantage in a district encompassing Greenville and Spartanburg counties with longstanding GOP voter registration edges. Democratic nominee Courtney McClain faces structural barriers typical of the district's electoral history, with no recent polling or events indicating a competitive general election shift before November 3. The wisdom of crowds in this market aligns with base rates for similar safe seats.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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