Incumbent Democrat Paul Tonko seeks re-election in New York's 20th congressional district, a seat rated Solid Democratic by major forecasters with a D+8 Partisan Voter Index reflecting consistent Democratic advantages in recent presidential voting. Tonko advanced unopposed through the June 23, 2026 primary after securing 61% in 2024, while Republican Ralph Ambrosio faces limited resources and visibility against the long-serving representative. Trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee stems from the district's structural lean, incumbency benefits, and absence of competitive primary challenges or major scandals. A significant national Republican wave, unexpected health or ethics issues for Tonko, or unusually high turnout mobilization could narrow margins, though historical base rates for safe Democratic seats limit realistic reversal prospects before November.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$27,672 Vol.
$27,672 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
91%
共和党
7%
$27,672 Vol.
$27,672 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$14,824 Vol.
91%
共和党
$12,848 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Paul Tonko seeks re-election in New York's 20th congressional district, a seat rated Solid Democratic by major forecasters with a D+8 Partisan Voter Index reflecting consistent Democratic advantages in recent presidential voting. Tonko advanced unopposed through the June 23, 2026 primary after securing 61% in 2024, while Republican Ralph Ambrosio faces limited resources and visibility against the long-serving representative. Trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee stems from the district's structural lean, incumbency benefits, and absence of competitive primary challenges or major scandals. A significant national Republican wave, unexpected health or ethics issues for Tonko, or unusually high turnout mobilization could narrow margins, though historical base rates for safe Democratic seats limit realistic reversal prospects before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
音量
$27,672終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Paul Tonko seeks re-election in New York's 20th congressional district, a seat rated Solid Democratic by major forecasters with a D+8 Partisan Voter Index reflecting consistent Democratic advantages in recent presidential voting. Tonko advanced unopposed through the June 23, 2026 primary after securing 61% in 2024, while Republican Ralph Ambrosio faces limited resources and visibility against the long-serving representative. Trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee stems from the district's structural lean, incumbency benefits, and absence of competitive primary challenges or major scandals. A significant national Republican wave, unexpected health or ethics issues for Tonko, or unusually high turnout mobilization could narrow margins, though historical base rates for safe Democratic seats limit realistic reversal prospects before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-20 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$27,672終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Paul Tonko seeks re-election in New York's 20th congressional district, a seat rated Solid Democratic by major forecasters with a D+8 Partisan Voter Index reflecting consistent Democratic advantages in recent presidential voting. Tonko advanced unopposed through the June 23, 2026 primary after securing 61% in 2024, while Republican Ralph Ambrosio faces limited resources and visibility against the long-serving representative. Trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee stems from the district's structural lean, incumbency benefits, and absence of competitive primary challenges or major scandals. A significant national Republican wave, unexpected health or ethics issues for Tonko, or unusually high turnout mobilization could narrow margins, though historical base rates for safe Democratic seats limit realistic reversal prospects before November.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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