Missouri's 3rd congressional district maintains a strong Republican lean, reflected in the 91% trader consensus for a Republican victory in the 2026 general election. Incumbent Bob Onder seeks re-election following his 2024 win, while nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican based on its partisan voting index and historical margins exceeding 25 points. With primaries scheduled for August 4, 2026, the Republican primary features Onder against challenger John Fraser, and Democrats field multiple candidates including Bethany Mann. This structural advantage and lack of competitive indicators keep the implied probability elevated, though an unexpected primary outcome or national midterm wave could narrow the gap in the November contest.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
91%
民主党
8%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
$67 Vol.
91%
民主党
$0 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri's 3rd congressional district maintains a strong Republican lean, reflected in the 91% trader consensus for a Republican victory in the 2026 general election. Incumbent Bob Onder seeks re-election following his 2024 win, while nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican based on its partisan voting index and historical margins exceeding 25 points. With primaries scheduled for August 4, 2026, the Republican primary features Onder against challenger John Fraser, and Democrats field multiple candidates including Bethany Mann. This structural advantage and lack of competitive indicators keep the implied probability elevated, though an unexpected primary outcome or national midterm wave could narrow the gap in the November contest.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
音量
$67終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri's 3rd congressional district maintains a strong Republican lean, reflected in the 91% trader consensus for a Republican victory in the 2026 general election. Incumbent Bob Onder seeks re-election following his 2024 win, while nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican based on its partisan voting index and historical margins exceeding 25 points. With primaries scheduled for August 4, 2026, the Republican primary features Onder against challenger John Fraser, and Democrats field multiple candidates including Bethany Mann. This structural advantage and lack of competitive indicators keep the implied probability elevated, though an unexpected primary outcome or national midterm wave could narrow the gap in the November contest.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$67終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Missouri's 3rd congressional district maintains a strong Republican lean, reflected in the 91% trader consensus for a Republican victory in the 2026 general election. Incumbent Bob Onder seeks re-election following his 2024 win, while nonpartisan forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican based on its partisan voting index and historical margins exceeding 25 points. With primaries scheduled for August 4, 2026, the Republican primary features Onder against challenger John Fraser, and Democrats field multiple candidates including Bethany Mann. This structural advantage and lack of competitive indicators keep the implied probability elevated, though an unexpected primary outcome or national midterm wave could narrow the gap in the November contest.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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