Missouri’s 4th congressional district features incumbent Republican Mark Alford seeking re-election in a seat long defined by strong conservative voter preferences and rural-suburban demographics. Recent Republican-led redistricting preserved the district’s partisan lean, building on Alford’s 2024 general-election margin exceeding 44 points and consistent prior Republican performance in the area. With primaries scheduled for August 2026 and multiple Democratic candidates already filed, limited opposition infrastructure and fundraising gaps reinforce trader consensus around the Republican nominee. Structural factors such as historical turnout patterns and the absence of competitive polling shifts sustain the wide implied probability gap. Late developments that could narrow this positioning remain low-probability, including candidate scandals, court interventions on maps, or unusually elevated opposition mobilization ahead of the November general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$34,928 Vol.
$34,928 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
93%
民主党
7%
$34,928 Vol.
$34,928 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
$20,778 Vol.
93%
民主党
$14,150 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri’s 4th congressional district features incumbent Republican Mark Alford seeking re-election in a seat long defined by strong conservative voter preferences and rural-suburban demographics. Recent Republican-led redistricting preserved the district’s partisan lean, building on Alford’s 2024 general-election margin exceeding 44 points and consistent prior Republican performance in the area. With primaries scheduled for August 2026 and multiple Democratic candidates already filed, limited opposition infrastructure and fundraising gaps reinforce trader consensus around the Republican nominee. Structural factors such as historical turnout patterns and the absence of competitive polling shifts sustain the wide implied probability gap. Late developments that could narrow this positioning remain low-probability, including candidate scandals, court interventions on maps, or unusually elevated opposition mobilization ahead of the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
音量
$34,928終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Missouri’s 4th congressional district features incumbent Republican Mark Alford seeking re-election in a seat long defined by strong conservative voter preferences and rural-suburban demographics. Recent Republican-led redistricting preserved the district’s partisan lean, building on Alford’s 2024 general-election margin exceeding 44 points and consistent prior Republican performance in the area. With primaries scheduled for August 2026 and multiple Democratic candidates already filed, limited opposition infrastructure and fundraising gaps reinforce trader consensus around the Republican nominee. Structural factors such as historical turnout patterns and the absence of competitive polling shifts sustain the wide implied probability gap. Late developments that could narrow this positioning remain low-probability, including candidate scandals, court interventions on maps, or unusually elevated opposition mobilization ahead of the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$34,928終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Missouri’s 4th congressional district features incumbent Republican Mark Alford seeking re-election in a seat long defined by strong conservative voter preferences and rural-suburban demographics. Recent Republican-led redistricting preserved the district’s partisan lean, building on Alford’s 2024 general-election margin exceeding 44 points and consistent prior Republican performance in the area. With primaries scheduled for August 2026 and multiple Democratic candidates already filed, limited opposition infrastructure and fundraising gaps reinforce trader consensus around the Republican nominee. Structural factors such as historical turnout patterns and the absence of competitive polling shifts sustain the wide implied probability gap. Late developments that could narrow this positioning remain low-probability, including candidate scandals, court interventions on maps, or unusually elevated opposition mobilization ahead of the November general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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