The district's strong Republican lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+10 and consistent majorities for GOP candidates in recent presidential and congressional voting, underpins the 93% trader consensus for the Republican nominee. With incumbent Wesley Hunt pursuing a Senate bid, Jon Bonck secured the nomination after winning the May 2026 primary runoff by nearly 30 points and receiving a Trump endorsement, positioning him against Democratic nominee Melissa McDonough in a November 3 general election rated Solid or Safe Republican by multiple forecasters. The affluent Houston-area district's voting patterns and limited Democratic infrastructure reinforce this positioning. A major scandal, unusually low Republican turnout, or a pronounced national midterm swing could still narrow the margin, though such shifts would require substantial deviation from established partisan baselines.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$28,006 Vol.
$28,006 Vol.
2026/11/02
共和党
93%
民主党
5%
$28,006 Vol.
$28,006 Vol.
2026/11/02
共和党
$17,956 Vol.
93%
民主党
$10,050 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's strong Republican lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+10 and consistent majorities for GOP candidates in recent presidential and congressional voting, underpins the 93% trader consensus for the Republican nominee. With incumbent Wesley Hunt pursuing a Senate bid, Jon Bonck secured the nomination after winning the May 2026 primary runoff by nearly 30 points and receiving a Trump endorsement, positioning him against Democratic nominee Melissa McDonough in a November 3 general election rated Solid or Safe Republican by multiple forecasters. The affluent Houston-area district's voting patterns and limited Democratic infrastructure reinforce this positioning. A major scandal, unusually low Republican turnout, or a pronounced national midterm swing could still narrow the margin, though such shifts would require substantial deviation from established partisan baselines.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
音量
$28,006終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's strong Republican lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+10 and consistent majorities for GOP candidates in recent presidential and congressional voting, underpins the 93% trader consensus for the Republican nominee. With incumbent Wesley Hunt pursuing a Senate bid, Jon Bonck secured the nomination after winning the May 2026 primary runoff by nearly 30 points and receiving a Trump endorsement, positioning him against Democratic nominee Melissa McDonough in a November 3 general election rated Solid or Safe Republican by multiple forecasters. The affluent Houston-area district's voting patterns and limited Democratic infrastructure reinforce this positioning. A major scandal, unusually low Republican turnout, or a pronounced national midterm swing could still narrow the margin, though such shifts would require substantial deviation from established partisan baselines.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$28,006終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...The district's strong Republican lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+10 and consistent majorities for GOP candidates in recent presidential and congressional voting, underpins the 93% trader consensus for the Republican nominee. With incumbent Wesley Hunt pursuing a Senate bid, Jon Bonck secured the nomination after winning the May 2026 primary runoff by nearly 30 points and receiving a Trump endorsement, positioning him against Democratic nominee Melissa McDonough in a November 3 general election rated Solid or Safe Republican by multiple forecasters. The affluent Houston-area district's voting patterns and limited Democratic infrastructure reinforce this positioning. A major scandal, unusually low Republican turnout, or a pronounced national midterm swing could still narrow the margin, though such shifts would require substantial deviation from established partisan baselines.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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