Illinois's 5th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean rooted in its Chicago-area demographics and voting patterns, supporting incumbent Mike Quigley's position after he secured the Democratic nomination in the March 2026 primary with roughly 65 percent of the vote. Republican nominee Tom Hanson advanced from a less contested primary, yet the seat's historical margins and lack of competitive indicators reinforce trader consensus around a Democratic hold in the November general election. With no major shifts in polling, endorsements, or district dynamics reported since the primaries, the implied probability reflects established electoral math favoring the incumbent party. Late developments such as an unexpected scandal or turnout anomaly remain the primary theoretical paths to altering the outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
95%
共和党
6%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
$7,751 Vol.
95%
共和党
$1,493 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Illinois's 5th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean rooted in its Chicago-area demographics and voting patterns, supporting incumbent Mike Quigley's position after he secured the Democratic nomination in the March 2026 primary with roughly 65 percent of the vote. Republican nominee Tom Hanson advanced from a less contested primary, yet the seat's historical margins and lack of competitive indicators reinforce trader consensus around a Democratic hold in the November general election. With no major shifts in polling, endorsements, or district dynamics reported since the primaries, the implied probability reflects established electoral math favoring the incumbent party. Late developments such as an unexpected scandal or turnout anomaly remain the primary theoretical paths to altering the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
音量
$9,244終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Illinois's 5th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean rooted in its Chicago-area demographics and voting patterns, supporting incumbent Mike Quigley's position after he secured the Democratic nomination in the March 2026 primary with roughly 65 percent of the vote. Republican nominee Tom Hanson advanced from a less contested primary, yet the seat's historical margins and lack of competitive indicators reinforce trader consensus around a Democratic hold in the November general election. With no major shifts in polling, endorsements, or district dynamics reported since the primaries, the implied probability reflects established electoral math favoring the incumbent party. Late developments such as an unexpected scandal or turnout anomaly remain the primary theoretical paths to altering the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$9,244終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Illinois's 5th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean rooted in its Chicago-area demographics and voting patterns, supporting incumbent Mike Quigley's position after he secured the Democratic nomination in the March 2026 primary with roughly 65 percent of the vote. Republican nominee Tom Hanson advanced from a less contested primary, yet the seat's historical margins and lack of competitive indicators reinforce trader consensus around a Democratic hold in the November general election. With no major shifts in polling, endorsements, or district dynamics reported since the primaries, the implied probability reflects established electoral math favoring the incumbent party. Late developments such as an unexpected scandal or turnout anomaly remain the primary theoretical paths to altering the outcome.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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