The Illinois 5th congressional district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in a partisan voting index around D+19 and consistent past margins exceeding 30 points, underpins the market's 94.5% consensus for a Democratic victory. Incumbent Representative Mike Quigley secured the Democratic nomination in the March 2026 primary and has held the seat since 2009, benefiting from the district's urban and suburban Chicago composition, high education levels, and limited Republican infrastructure. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic with no competitive general election challenger emerging. Late developments such as a major scandal, health issue for the nominee, or an unforeseen national wave could still alter the outcome, though historical patterns in similarly tilted districts show such shifts rarely overcome structural advantages this close to November.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
95%
共和党
6%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
民主党
$7,751 Vol.
95%
共和党
$1,493 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 5th congressional district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in a partisan voting index around D+19 and consistent past margins exceeding 30 points, underpins the market's 94.5% consensus for a Democratic victory. Incumbent Representative Mike Quigley secured the Democratic nomination in the March 2026 primary and has held the seat since 2009, benefiting from the district's urban and suburban Chicago composition, high education levels, and limited Republican infrastructure. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic with no competitive general election challenger emerging. Late developments such as a major scandal, health issue for the nominee, or an unforeseen national wave could still alter the outcome, though historical patterns in similarly tilted districts show such shifts rarely overcome structural advantages this close to November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
音量
$9,244終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Illinois 5th congressional district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in a partisan voting index around D+19 and consistent past margins exceeding 30 points, underpins the market's 94.5% consensus for a Democratic victory. Incumbent Representative Mike Quigley secured the Democratic nomination in the March 2026 primary and has held the seat since 2009, benefiting from the district's urban and suburban Chicago composition, high education levels, and limited Republican infrastructure. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic with no competitive general election challenger emerging. Late developments such as a major scandal, health issue for the nominee, or an unforeseen national wave could still alter the outcome, though historical patterns in similarly tilted districts show such shifts rarely overcome structural advantages this close to November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$9,244終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Illinois 5th congressional district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in a partisan voting index around D+19 and consistent past margins exceeding 30 points, underpins the market's 94.5% consensus for a Democratic victory. Incumbent Representative Mike Quigley secured the Democratic nomination in the March 2026 primary and has held the seat since 2009, benefiting from the district's urban and suburban Chicago composition, high education levels, and limited Republican infrastructure. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic with no competitive general election challenger emerging. Late developments such as a major scandal, health issue for the nominee, or an unforeseen national wave could still alter the outcome, though historical patterns in similarly tilted districts show such shifts rarely overcome structural advantages this close to November.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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