Illinois’s 2nd congressional district remains a solidly Democratic seat following Donna Miller’s March 2026 primary victory over a crowded field that included Jesse Jackson Jr. The district’s southeast Chicago and southern suburban geography produces consistent Democratic margins exceeding 30 points in recent cycles, and the open seat created by Robin Kelly’s Senate bid has not altered that structural advantage. Republican nominee Mike Noack faces limited resources and name recognition against the Democratic nominee in a general election set for November 3. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with historical voting patterns and the absence of competitive Republican infrastructure or polling shifts that would indicate a realistic path to victory. Late developments such as a major scandal or unusually high Republican turnout could narrow the margin, though both remain low-probability events given the district’s composition.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$32,137 Vol.
$32,137 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
94%
共和党
5%
$32,137 Vol.
$32,137 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$13,630 Vol.
94%
共和党
$18,507 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Illinois’s 2nd congressional district remains a solidly Democratic seat following Donna Miller’s March 2026 primary victory over a crowded field that included Jesse Jackson Jr. The district’s southeast Chicago and southern suburban geography produces consistent Democratic margins exceeding 30 points in recent cycles, and the open seat created by Robin Kelly’s Senate bid has not altered that structural advantage. Republican nominee Mike Noack faces limited resources and name recognition against the Democratic nominee in a general election set for November 3. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with historical voting patterns and the absence of competitive Republican infrastructure or polling shifts that would indicate a realistic path to victory. Late developments such as a major scandal or unusually high Republican turnout could narrow the margin, though both remain low-probability events given the district’s composition.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
音量
$32,137終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Illinois’s 2nd congressional district remains a solidly Democratic seat following Donna Miller’s March 2026 primary victory over a crowded field that included Jesse Jackson Jr. The district’s southeast Chicago and southern suburban geography produces consistent Democratic margins exceeding 30 points in recent cycles, and the open seat created by Robin Kelly’s Senate bid has not altered that structural advantage. Republican nominee Mike Noack faces limited resources and name recognition against the Democratic nominee in a general election set for November 3. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with historical voting patterns and the absence of competitive Republican infrastructure or polling shifts that would indicate a realistic path to victory. Late developments such as a major scandal or unusually high Republican turnout could narrow the margin, though both remain low-probability events given the district’s composition.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$32,137終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Illinois’s 2nd congressional district remains a solidly Democratic seat following Donna Miller’s March 2026 primary victory over a crowded field that included Jesse Jackson Jr. The district’s southeast Chicago and southern suburban geography produces consistent Democratic margins exceeding 30 points in recent cycles, and the open seat created by Robin Kelly’s Senate bid has not altered that structural advantage. Republican nominee Mike Noack faces limited resources and name recognition against the Democratic nominee in a general election set for November 3. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with historical voting patterns and the absence of competitive Republican infrastructure or polling shifts that would indicate a realistic path to victory. Late developments such as a major scandal or unusually high Republican turnout could narrow the margin, though both remain low-probability events given the district’s composition.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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