Arizona's 4th congressional district maintains a D+4 partisan voting index and delivered a roughly seven-point Democratic margin in the prior cycle, establishing the core structural advantage reflected in the 86.5% Democratic share on Polymarket. Incumbent Representative Greg Stanton, first elected in 2018, faces only a low-profile primary challenge from Kai Newkirk ahead of the July 21 contest, while Republicans advance Zuhdi Jasser and others on the same date. Nonpartisan rating firms classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with historical voting patterns in the Tempe-Mesa-Chandler suburbs. With the November 3 general election still months away, trader consensus incorporates the limited competitive pressure on the Democratic nominee and the absence of major shifts in district fundamentals or candidate developments that would alter the implied probability.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$16,901 Vol.
$16,901 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
87%
共和党
13%
$16,901 Vol.
$16,901 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$14,057 Vol.
87%
共和党
$2,843 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Arizona's 4th congressional district maintains a D+4 partisan voting index and delivered a roughly seven-point Democratic margin in the prior cycle, establishing the core structural advantage reflected in the 86.5% Democratic share on Polymarket. Incumbent Representative Greg Stanton, first elected in 2018, faces only a low-profile primary challenge from Kai Newkirk ahead of the July 21 contest, while Republicans advance Zuhdi Jasser and others on the same date. Nonpartisan rating firms classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with historical voting patterns in the Tempe-Mesa-Chandler suburbs. With the November 3 general election still months away, trader consensus incorporates the limited competitive pressure on the Democratic nominee and the absence of major shifts in district fundamentals or candidate developments that would alter the implied probability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
音量
$16,901終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Arizona's 4th congressional district maintains a D+4 partisan voting index and delivered a roughly seven-point Democratic margin in the prior cycle, establishing the core structural advantage reflected in the 86.5% Democratic share on Polymarket. Incumbent Representative Greg Stanton, first elected in 2018, faces only a low-profile primary challenge from Kai Newkirk ahead of the July 21 contest, while Republicans advance Zuhdi Jasser and others on the same date. Nonpartisan rating firms classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with historical voting patterns in the Tempe-Mesa-Chandler suburbs. With the November 3 general election still months away, trader consensus incorporates the limited competitive pressure on the Democratic nominee and the absence of major shifts in district fundamentals or candidate developments that would alter the implied probability.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$16,901終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Arizona's 4th congressional district maintains a D+4 partisan voting index and delivered a roughly seven-point Democratic margin in the prior cycle, establishing the core structural advantage reflected in the 86.5% Democratic share on Polymarket. Incumbent Representative Greg Stanton, first elected in 2018, faces only a low-profile primary challenge from Kai Newkirk ahead of the July 21 contest, while Republicans advance Zuhdi Jasser and others on the same date. Nonpartisan rating firms classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with historical voting patterns in the Tempe-Mesa-Chandler suburbs. With the November 3 general election still months away, trader consensus incorporates the limited competitive pressure on the Democratic nominee and the absence of major shifts in district fundamentals or candidate developments that would alter the implied probability.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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