Incumbent Democrat Madeleine Dean's commanding position in Pennsylvania's 4th congressional district stems from the seat's established Democratic lean, her multiple terms in office, and a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $1 million with cash reserves intact as of late May 2026. Republican nominee Aurora Stuski, who advanced unopposed in the May primary, shows minimal campaign resources, consistent with nonpartisan race ratings classifying the contest as solid or safe Democratic. Trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% implied probability for Democrats aligns with these structural factors. Late developments such as an unforeseen scandal, significant health event, or dramatic national political shift could still introduce volatility before the November general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日PA-04 House Election Winner
PA-04 House Election Winner
$15,102 Vol.
$15,102 Vol.
2026/11/03
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
6%
$15,102 Vol.
$15,102 Vol.
2026/11/03
Democratic Party
$6,363 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$8,739 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Madeleine Dean's commanding position in Pennsylvania's 4th congressional district stems from the seat's established Democratic lean, her multiple terms in office, and a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $1 million with cash reserves intact as of late May 2026. Republican nominee Aurora Stuski, who advanced unopposed in the May primary, shows minimal campaign resources, consistent with nonpartisan race ratings classifying the contest as solid or safe Democratic. Trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% implied probability for Democrats aligns with these structural factors. Late developments such as an unforeseen scandal, significant health event, or dramatic national political shift could still introduce volatility before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
音量
$15,102終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Madeleine Dean's commanding position in Pennsylvania's 4th congressional district stems from the seat's established Democratic lean, her multiple terms in office, and a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $1 million with cash reserves intact as of late May 2026. Republican nominee Aurora Stuski, who advanced unopposed in the May primary, shows minimal campaign resources, consistent with nonpartisan race ratings classifying the contest as solid or safe Democratic. Trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% implied probability for Democrats aligns with these structural factors. Late developments such as an unforeseen scandal, significant health event, or dramatic national political shift could still introduce volatility before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$15,102終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Madeleine Dean's commanding position in Pennsylvania's 4th congressional district stems from the seat's established Democratic lean, her multiple terms in office, and a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $1 million with cash reserves intact as of late May 2026. Republican nominee Aurora Stuski, who advanced unopposed in the May primary, shows minimal campaign resources, consistent with nonpartisan race ratings classifying the contest as solid or safe Democratic. Trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% implied probability for Democrats aligns with these structural factors. Late developments such as an unforeseen scandal, significant health event, or dramatic national political shift could still introduce volatility before the November general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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