Democratic Rep. Laura Gillen, who flipped New York’s 4th Congressional District in 2024, holds a strong position as incumbent heading into the November 2026 general election. Primaries concluded in June with Gillen securing the Democratic nomination and Jeanine Driscoll emerging as the Republican nominee, narrowing the contest to a rematch dynamic in this Long Island district centered on Hempstead. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing favors the Democratic outcome, driven by Gillen’s established local profile, fundraising edge, and the typical advantages incumbents enjoy in House races. Broader midterm dynamics and suburban voter trends in Nassau County remain key variables that could influence final margins, though no major late-breaking developments have shifted positioning in recent weeks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/04
民主党
83%
共和党
15%
新規
新規
2026/11/04
民主党
$791 Vol.
83%
共和党
$343 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic Rep. Laura Gillen, who flipped New York’s 4th Congressional District in 2024, holds a strong position as incumbent heading into the November 2026 general election. Primaries concluded in June with Gillen securing the Democratic nomination and Jeanine Driscoll emerging as the Republican nominee, narrowing the contest to a rematch dynamic in this Long Island district centered on Hempstead. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing favors the Democratic outcome, driven by Gillen’s established local profile, fundraising edge, and the typical advantages incumbents enjoy in House races. Broader midterm dynamics and suburban voter trends in Nassau County remain key variables that could influence final margins, though no major late-breaking developments have shifted positioning in recent weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
音量
$1,134終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic Rep. Laura Gillen, who flipped New York’s 4th Congressional District in 2024, holds a strong position as incumbent heading into the November 2026 general election. Primaries concluded in June with Gillen securing the Democratic nomination and Jeanine Driscoll emerging as the Republican nominee, narrowing the contest to a rematch dynamic in this Long Island district centered on Hempstead. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing favors the Democratic outcome, driven by Gillen’s established local profile, fundraising edge, and the typical advantages incumbents enjoy in House races. Broader midterm dynamics and suburban voter trends in Nassau County remain key variables that could influence final margins, though no major late-breaking developments have shifted positioning in recent weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$1,134終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic Rep. Laura Gillen, who flipped New York’s 4th Congressional District in 2024, holds a strong position as incumbent heading into the November 2026 general election. Primaries concluded in June with Gillen securing the Democratic nomination and Jeanine Driscoll emerging as the Republican nominee, narrowing the contest to a rematch dynamic in this Long Island district centered on Hempstead. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing favors the Democratic outcome, driven by Gillen’s established local profile, fundraising edge, and the typical advantages incumbents enjoy in House races. Broader midterm dynamics and suburban voter trends in Nassau County remain key variables that could influence final margins, though no major late-breaking developments have shifted positioning in recent weeks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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