Democratic incumbent Laura Gillen holds an advantage in New York’s 4th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election. She flipped the Long Island seat from Republican control in 2024 by a narrow margin and faces a likely rematch against former Representative Anthony D’Esposito. Nonpartisan race ratings classify the contest as Lean Democratic, supported by a modest district lean and early polling showing Gillen ahead. Primaries scheduled for June 23 will finalize nominees, after which fundraising, turnout among suburban voters, and national midterm dynamics could influence the outcome. Trader consensus assigns the Democratic nominee the clearest edge while leaving room for shifts based on candidate performance and broader political conditions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/04
民主党
79%
共和党
20%
新規
新規
2026/11/04
民主党
$144 Vol.
79%
共和党
$197 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Laura Gillen holds an advantage in New York’s 4th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election. She flipped the Long Island seat from Republican control in 2024 by a narrow margin and faces a likely rematch against former Representative Anthony D’Esposito. Nonpartisan race ratings classify the contest as Lean Democratic, supported by a modest district lean and early polling showing Gillen ahead. Primaries scheduled for June 23 will finalize nominees, after which fundraising, turnout among suburban voters, and national midterm dynamics could influence the outcome. Trader consensus assigns the Democratic nominee the clearest edge while leaving room for shifts based on candidate performance and broader political conditions.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
音量
$341終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Laura Gillen holds an advantage in New York’s 4th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election. She flipped the Long Island seat from Republican control in 2024 by a narrow margin and faces a likely rematch against former Representative Anthony D’Esposito. Nonpartisan race ratings classify the contest as Lean Democratic, supported by a modest district lean and early polling showing Gillen ahead. Primaries scheduled for June 23 will finalize nominees, after which fundraising, turnout among suburban voters, and national midterm dynamics could influence the outcome. Trader consensus assigns the Democratic nominee the clearest edge while leaving room for shifts based on candidate performance and broader political conditions.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$341終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Laura Gillen holds an advantage in New York’s 4th congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election. She flipped the Long Island seat from Republican control in 2024 by a narrow margin and faces a likely rematch against former Representative Anthony D’Esposito. Nonpartisan race ratings classify the contest as Lean Democratic, supported by a modest district lean and early polling showing Gillen ahead. Primaries scheduled for June 23 will finalize nominees, after which fundraising, turnout among suburban voters, and national midterm dynamics could influence the outcome. Trader consensus assigns the Democratic nominee the clearest edge while leaving room for shifts based on candidate performance and broader political conditions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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