Democratic incumbent Laura Gillen holds a strong position in New York’s 4th Congressional District heading into the November 2026 general election, supported by her 2024 flip of the Long Island seat and consistent polling leads in early general-election matchups. The June 23 Democratic primary was canceled, allowing Gillen to advance without opposition, while Republicans are still sorting their nominee through a contested primary. The district’s Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+2 and its suburban Nassau County demographics have historically favored competitive outcomes, yet recent surveys show Gillen ahead by margins consistent with an incumbent edge. Trader consensus reflected in the current pricing aligns with these structural advantages and the absence of major recent disruptions that would shift the race toward the Republican challenger.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/04
民主党
81%
共和党
35%
新規
新規
2026/11/04
民主党
$144 Vol.
81%
共和党
$197 Vol.
35%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Laura Gillen holds a strong position in New York’s 4th Congressional District heading into the November 2026 general election, supported by her 2024 flip of the Long Island seat and consistent polling leads in early general-election matchups. The June 23 Democratic primary was canceled, allowing Gillen to advance without opposition, while Republicans are still sorting their nominee through a contested primary. The district’s Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+2 and its suburban Nassau County demographics have historically favored competitive outcomes, yet recent surveys show Gillen ahead by margins consistent with an incumbent edge. Trader consensus reflected in the current pricing aligns with these structural advantages and the absence of major recent disruptions that would shift the race toward the Republican challenger.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
音量
$341終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Laura Gillen holds a strong position in New York’s 4th Congressional District heading into the November 2026 general election, supported by her 2024 flip of the Long Island seat and consistent polling leads in early general-election matchups. The June 23 Democratic primary was canceled, allowing Gillen to advance without opposition, while Republicans are still sorting their nominee through a contested primary. The district’s Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+2 and its suburban Nassau County demographics have historically favored competitive outcomes, yet recent surveys show Gillen ahead by margins consistent with an incumbent edge. Trader consensus reflected in the current pricing aligns with these structural advantages and the absence of major recent disruptions that would shift the race toward the Republican challenger.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$341終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Laura Gillen holds a strong position in New York’s 4th Congressional District heading into the November 2026 general election, supported by her 2024 flip of the Long Island seat and consistent polling leads in early general-election matchups. The June 23 Democratic primary was canceled, allowing Gillen to advance without opposition, while Republicans are still sorting their nominee through a contested primary. The district’s Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+2 and its suburban Nassau County demographics have historically favored competitive outcomes, yet recent surveys show Gillen ahead by margins consistent with an incumbent edge. Trader consensus reflected in the current pricing aligns with these structural advantages and the absence of major recent disruptions that would shift the race toward the Republican challenger.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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