Recent polling from the Center for Strategic Politics shows Jared Moskowitz and Oliver Larkin in a statistical tie with roughly three weeks until the August 18 primary, reversing earlier surveys that gave the incumbent a double-digit lead. The contest pits Moskowitz’s centrist record against Larkin’s progressive platform in a newly redrawn South Florida district, with nearly a quarter of voters still undecided and early ballots favoring the sitting representative while remaining voters lean toward the challenger. Outside spending and targeted messaging on records have narrowed the gap further. A late surge in turnout among undecided or progressive-leaning voters, or shifts in foreign policy or affordability messaging, could widen the final margin before election day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日モスコウィッツ25％以上 50%
モスコウィッツ 15〜20% 18%
モスコウィッツ 20〜25％ 17%
モスコウィッツ 5％未満 10%
新規
新規
2026/08/18
モスコウィッツ25％以上
50%
モスコウィッツ 20〜25％
17%
モスコウィッツ 15〜20%
18%
モスコウィッツ 10〜15％
1%
モスコウィッツ 5～10％
1%
モスコウィッツ 5％未満
10%
ラーキン <5%
10%
ラーキン 5〜10％
9%
ラーキン 10～15％
3%
ラーキン 15〜20％
3%
ラーキン20～25%
3%
ラーキン25％以上
3%
モスコウィッツ25％以上 50%
モスコウィッツ 15〜20% 18%
モスコウィッツ 20〜25％ 17%
モスコウィッツ 5％未満 10%
新規
新規
2026/08/18
モスコウィッツ25％以上
$253 Vol.
50%
モスコウィッツ 20〜25％
$79 Vol.
17%
モスコウィッツ 15〜20%
$73 Vol.
18%
モスコウィッツ 10〜15％
$52 Vol.
1%
モスコウィッツ 5～10％
$31 Vol.
1%
モスコウィッツ 5％未満
$47 Vol.
10%
ラーキン <5%
$47 Vol.
10%
ラーキン 5〜10％
$52 Vol.
9%
ラーキン 10～15％
$112 Vol.
3%
ラーキン 15〜20％
$74 Vol.
3%
ラーキン20～25%
$52 Vol.
3%
ラーキン25％以上
$140 Vol.
3%
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary for Florida's 25th Congressional District (FL-25).
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent polling from the Center for Strategic Politics shows Jared Moskowitz and Oliver Larkin in a statistical tie with roughly three weeks until the August 18 primary, reversing earlier surveys that gave the incumbent a double-digit lead. The contest pits Moskowitz’s centrist record against Larkin’s progressive platform in a newly redrawn South Florida district, with nearly a quarter of voters still undecided and early ballots favoring the sitting representative while remaining voters lean toward the challenger. Outside spending and targeted messaging on records have narrowed the gap further. A late surge in turnout among undecided or progressive-leaning voters, or shifts in foreign policy or affordability messaging, could widen the final margin before election day.
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary for Florida's 25th Congressional District (FL-25).
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary for Florida's 25th Congressional District (FL-25).
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
マーケット開始日： Aug 14, 2026, 5:57 PM ET
音量
$1,015終了日
2026/08/18マーケット開始日
Aug 14, 2026, 5:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary for Florida's 25th Congressional District (FL-25).
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent polling from the Center for Strategic Politics shows Jared Moskowitz and Oliver Larkin in a statistical tie with roughly three weeks until the August 18 primary, reversing earlier surveys that gave the incumbent a double-digit lead. The contest pits Moskowitz’s centrist record against Larkin’s progressive platform in a newly redrawn South Florida district, with nearly a quarter of voters still undecided and early ballots favoring the sitting representative while remaining voters lean toward the challenger. Outside spending and targeted messaging on records have narrowed the gap further. A late surge in turnout among undecided or progressive-leaning voters, or shifts in foreign policy or affordability messaging, could widen the final margin before election day.
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary for Florida's 25th Congressional District (FL-25).
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Democratic Primary for Florida's 25th Congressional District (FL-25).
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
音量
$1,015終了日
2026/08/18マーケット開始日
Aug 14, 2026, 5:57 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from the Center for Strategic Politics shows Jared Moskowitz and Oliver Larkin in a statistical tie with roughly three weeks until the August 18 primary, reversing earlier surveys that gave the incumbent a double-digit lead. The contest pits Moskowitz’s centrist record against Larkin’s progressive platform in a newly redrawn South Florida district, with nearly a quarter of voters still undecided and early ballots favoring the sitting representative while remaining voters lean toward the challenger. Outside spending and targeted messaging on records have narrowed the gap further. A late surge in turnout among undecided or progressive-leaning voters, or shifts in foreign policy or affordability messaging, could widen the final margin before election day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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