Republican incumbent Chris Smith, who has represented New Jersey's 4th district since 1981 and won reelection with 67.4% in 2024, secured the GOP nomination unopposed in the June 2026 primary. The district covers portions of Monmouth and Ocean counties with a pronounced Republican voter registration edge, limiting Democratic prospects. Challenger Rachel Peace won her party's primary but faces structural disadvantages in fundraising, name recognition, and partisan composition that have produced consistent double-digit Republican margins. Trader consensus at roughly 93-94% Republican reflects these baseline factors, including historical performance and nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe for the GOP. A major scandal, health event affecting Smith, or unusually strong national Democratic turnout wave could narrow the gap, though such shifts remain low-probability given current conditions ahead of the November general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
94%
民主党
7%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
$5,448 Vol.
94%
民主党
$3,991 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Chris Smith, who has represented New Jersey's 4th district since 1981 and won reelection with 67.4% in 2024, secured the GOP nomination unopposed in the June 2026 primary. The district covers portions of Monmouth and Ocean counties with a pronounced Republican voter registration edge, limiting Democratic prospects. Challenger Rachel Peace won her party's primary but faces structural disadvantages in fundraising, name recognition, and partisan composition that have produced consistent double-digit Republican margins. Trader consensus at roughly 93-94% Republican reflects these baseline factors, including historical performance and nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe for the GOP. A major scandal, health event affecting Smith, or unusually strong national Democratic turnout wave could narrow the gap, though such shifts remain low-probability given current conditions ahead of the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
音量
$9,439終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Chris Smith, who has represented New Jersey's 4th district since 1981 and won reelection with 67.4% in 2024, secured the GOP nomination unopposed in the June 2026 primary. The district covers portions of Monmouth and Ocean counties with a pronounced Republican voter registration edge, limiting Democratic prospects. Challenger Rachel Peace won her party's primary but faces structural disadvantages in fundraising, name recognition, and partisan composition that have produced consistent double-digit Republican margins. Trader consensus at roughly 93-94% Republican reflects these baseline factors, including historical performance and nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe for the GOP. A major scandal, health event affecting Smith, or unusually strong national Democratic turnout wave could narrow the gap, though such shifts remain low-probability given current conditions ahead of the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$9,439終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican incumbent Chris Smith, who has represented New Jersey's 4th district since 1981 and won reelection with 67.4% in 2024, secured the GOP nomination unopposed in the June 2026 primary. The district covers portions of Monmouth and Ocean counties with a pronounced Republican voter registration edge, limiting Democratic prospects. Challenger Rachel Peace won her party's primary but faces structural disadvantages in fundraising, name recognition, and partisan composition that have produced consistent double-digit Republican margins. Trader consensus at roughly 93-94% Republican reflects these baseline factors, including historical performance and nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe for the GOP. A major scandal, health event affecting Smith, or unusually strong national Democratic turnout wave could narrow the gap, though such shifts remain low-probability given current conditions ahead of the November general election.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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