Washington's 5th congressional district remains a Republican-leaning seat in eastern Washington, where incumbent Michael Baumgartner seeks re-election in the November 2026 general election following a top-two primary scheduled for August 4. The district's Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+5 and Baumgartner's 2024 victory margin of roughly 21 points establish a structural baseline favoring the Republican nominee. Early polling, including a May Tavern Research survey showing Baumgartner ahead by 6 points and an earlier Change Research poll with a wider margin, underscores the district's partisan baseline and the Republican's early advantage in name recognition and fundraising. With filing deadlines passed and multiple Democratic challengers entered, trader consensus reflects these established factors rather than any late-cycle shifts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$15,351 Vol.
$15,351 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
70%
民主党
27%
$15,351 Vol.
$15,351 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
$7,456 Vol.
70%
民主党
$7,895 Vol.
27%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Washington's 5th congressional district remains a Republican-leaning seat in eastern Washington, where incumbent Michael Baumgartner seeks re-election in the November 2026 general election following a top-two primary scheduled for August 4. The district's Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+5 and Baumgartner's 2024 victory margin of roughly 21 points establish a structural baseline favoring the Republican nominee. Early polling, including a May Tavern Research survey showing Baumgartner ahead by 6 points and an earlier Change Research poll with a wider margin, underscores the district's partisan baseline and the Republican's early advantage in name recognition and fundraising. With filing deadlines passed and multiple Democratic challengers entered, trader consensus reflects these established factors rather than any late-cycle shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
音量
$15,351終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Washington's 5th congressional district remains a Republican-leaning seat in eastern Washington, where incumbent Michael Baumgartner seeks re-election in the November 2026 general election following a top-two primary scheduled for August 4. The district's Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+5 and Baumgartner's 2024 victory margin of roughly 21 points establish a structural baseline favoring the Republican nominee. Early polling, including a May Tavern Research survey showing Baumgartner ahead by 6 points and an earlier Change Research poll with a wider margin, underscores the district's partisan baseline and the Republican's early advantage in name recognition and fundraising. With filing deadlines passed and multiple Democratic challengers entered, trader consensus reflects these established factors rather than any late-cycle shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$15,351終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Washington's 5th congressional district remains a Republican-leaning seat in eastern Washington, where incumbent Michael Baumgartner seeks re-election in the November 2026 general election following a top-two primary scheduled for August 4. The district's Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+5 and Baumgartner's 2024 victory margin of roughly 21 points establish a structural baseline favoring the Republican nominee. Early polling, including a May Tavern Research survey showing Baumgartner ahead by 6 points and an earlier Change Research poll with a wider margin, underscores the district's partisan baseline and the Republican's early advantage in name recognition and fundraising. With filing deadlines passed and multiple Democratic challengers entered, trader consensus reflects these established factors rather than any late-cycle shifts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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