The retirement of incumbent Republican Ryan Zinke has opened Montana's 1st Congressional District seat ahead of the November 2026 election, driving trader consensus toward the Democratic Party at a 60% implied probability. The district carries an R+5 partisan voting index yet encompasses Democratic-leaning population centers in Missoula and Bozeman alongside rural areas, creating a competitive path for either party in an open-seat contest. Primaries scheduled for June 2 are clarifying nominees, with Ryan Busse positioned strongly on the Democratic side and Aaron Flint leading the Republican field following Zinke's endorsement. Early general-election polling and fundraising trends have reinforced perceptions of a narrow Democratic edge, though historical patterns in similar R+5 districts favor Republican holds absent major shifts in turnout or candidate dynamics.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/04
共和党
46%
民主党
46%
新規
新規
2026/11/04
共和党
$1,011 Vol.
46%
民主党
$392 Vol.
46%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The retirement of incumbent Republican Ryan Zinke has opened Montana's 1st Congressional District seat ahead of the November 2026 election, driving trader consensus toward the Democratic Party at a 60% implied probability. The district carries an R+5 partisan voting index yet encompasses Democratic-leaning population centers in Missoula and Bozeman alongside rural areas, creating a competitive path for either party in an open-seat contest. Primaries scheduled for June 2 are clarifying nominees, with Ryan Busse positioned strongly on the Democratic side and Aaron Flint leading the Republican field following Zinke's endorsement. Early general-election polling and fundraising trends have reinforced perceptions of a narrow Democratic edge, though historical patterns in similar R+5 districts favor Republican holds absent major shifts in turnout or candidate dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ET
音量
$1,402終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The retirement of incumbent Republican Ryan Zinke has opened Montana's 1st Congressional District seat ahead of the November 2026 election, driving trader consensus toward the Democratic Party at a 60% implied probability. The district carries an R+5 partisan voting index yet encompasses Democratic-leaning population centers in Missoula and Bozeman alongside rural areas, creating a competitive path for either party in an open-seat contest. Primaries scheduled for June 2 are clarifying nominees, with Ryan Busse positioned strongly on the Democratic side and Aaron Flint leading the Republican field following Zinke's endorsement. Early general-election polling and fundraising trends have reinforced perceptions of a narrow Democratic edge, though historical patterns in similar R+5 districts favor Republican holds absent major shifts in turnout or candidate dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$1,402終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:19 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The retirement of incumbent Republican Ryan Zinke has opened Montana's 1st Congressional District seat ahead of the November 2026 election, driving trader consensus toward the Democratic Party at a 60% implied probability. The district carries an R+5 partisan voting index yet encompasses Democratic-leaning population centers in Missoula and Bozeman alongside rural areas, creating a competitive path for either party in an open-seat contest. Primaries scheduled for June 2 are clarifying nominees, with Ryan Busse positioned strongly on the Democratic side and Aaron Flint leading the Republican field following Zinke's endorsement. Early general-election polling and fundraising trends have reinforced perceptions of a narrow Democratic edge, though historical patterns in similar R+5 districts favor Republican holds absent major shifts in turnout or candidate dynamics.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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