Republican Mike Simpson, the longtime incumbent first elected in 1999, secured his party's nomination in the May 2026 primary and enters the November general election in Idaho's 2nd Congressional District with a substantial structural advantage. The district's conservative voter base, reflected in its strong Republican partisan voting index, has delivered consistent GOP victories in recent cycles. Democratic nominee Elinor Gilbreath advanced from a low-turnout primary but faces the challenge of competing in a seat rated Solid Republican by major forecasters. Trader consensus at 93.5% for the Republican outcome aligns with this entrenched partisan lean and the absence of recent polling shifts, scandals, or national wave conditions that would alter the race. A major late-cycle development, such as an unexpected retirement or significant external event, would be required to meaningfully narrow the gap.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$30,364 Vol.
$30,364 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
94%
民主党
7%
$30,364 Vol.
$30,364 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
$13,015 Vol.
94%
民主党
$17,350 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican Mike Simpson, the longtime incumbent first elected in 1999, secured his party's nomination in the May 2026 primary and enters the November general election in Idaho's 2nd Congressional District with a substantial structural advantage. The district's conservative voter base, reflected in its strong Republican partisan voting index, has delivered consistent GOP victories in recent cycles. Democratic nominee Elinor Gilbreath advanced from a low-turnout primary but faces the challenge of competing in a seat rated Solid Republican by major forecasters. Trader consensus at 93.5% for the Republican outcome aligns with this entrenched partisan lean and the absence of recent polling shifts, scandals, or national wave conditions that would alter the race. A major late-cycle development, such as an unexpected retirement or significant external event, would be required to meaningfully narrow the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
音量
$30,364終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican Mike Simpson, the longtime incumbent first elected in 1999, secured his party's nomination in the May 2026 primary and enters the November general election in Idaho's 2nd Congressional District with a substantial structural advantage. The district's conservative voter base, reflected in its strong Republican partisan voting index, has delivered consistent GOP victories in recent cycles. Democratic nominee Elinor Gilbreath advanced from a low-turnout primary but faces the challenge of competing in a seat rated Solid Republican by major forecasters. Trader consensus at 93.5% for the Republican outcome aligns with this entrenched partisan lean and the absence of recent polling shifts, scandals, or national wave conditions that would alter the race. A major late-cycle development, such as an unexpected retirement or significant external event, would be required to meaningfully narrow the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$30,364終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican Mike Simpson, the longtime incumbent first elected in 1999, secured his party's nomination in the May 2026 primary and enters the November general election in Idaho's 2nd Congressional District with a substantial structural advantage. The district's conservative voter base, reflected in its strong Republican partisan voting index, has delivered consistent GOP victories in recent cycles. Democratic nominee Elinor Gilbreath advanced from a low-turnout primary but faces the challenge of competing in a seat rated Solid Republican by major forecasters. Trader consensus at 93.5% for the Republican outcome aligns with this entrenched partisan lean and the absence of recent polling shifts, scandals, or national wave conditions that would alter the race. A major late-cycle development, such as an unexpected retirement or significant external event, would be required to meaningfully narrow the gap.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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