Incumbent Republican Mike Simpson's decisive primary victory in May 2026, securing roughly 63 percent against two challengers, has reinforced trader expectations for a comfortable general-election win in Idaho's 2nd district. The eastern and northern Boise area has consistently delivered Republican margins above 60 percent in recent cycles, reflecting limited Democratic organizational strength and voter registration advantages that favor the GOP nominee. Democratic candidate Elinor Gilbreath faces the same structural headwinds that produced Simpson's 2024 reelection share of 61.4 percent. While late-cycle national shifts, candidate health developments, or unforeseen scandals could narrow the gap, the district's established partisan baseline and Simpson's long tenure continue to anchor the overwhelming market pricing.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
93%
民主党
8%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
$3,049 Vol.
93%
民主党
$3,409 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Simpson's decisive primary victory in May 2026, securing roughly 63 percent against two challengers, has reinforced trader expectations for a comfortable general-election win in Idaho's 2nd district. The eastern and northern Boise area has consistently delivered Republican margins above 60 percent in recent cycles, reflecting limited Democratic organizational strength and voter registration advantages that favor the GOP nominee. Democratic candidate Elinor Gilbreath faces the same structural headwinds that produced Simpson's 2024 reelection share of 61.4 percent. While late-cycle national shifts, candidate health developments, or unforeseen scandals could narrow the gap, the district's established partisan baseline and Simpson's long tenure continue to anchor the overwhelming market pricing.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
音量
$6,458終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Simpson's decisive primary victory in May 2026, securing roughly 63 percent against two challengers, has reinforced trader expectations for a comfortable general-election win in Idaho's 2nd district. The eastern and northern Boise area has consistently delivered Republican margins above 60 percent in recent cycles, reflecting limited Democratic organizational strength and voter registration advantages that favor the GOP nominee. Democratic candidate Elinor Gilbreath faces the same structural headwinds that produced Simpson's 2024 reelection share of 61.4 percent. While late-cycle national shifts, candidate health developments, or unforeseen scandals could narrow the gap, the district's established partisan baseline and Simpson's long tenure continue to anchor the overwhelming market pricing.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$6,458終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Mike Simpson's decisive primary victory in May 2026, securing roughly 63 percent against two challengers, has reinforced trader expectations for a comfortable general-election win in Idaho's 2nd district. The eastern and northern Boise area has consistently delivered Republican margins above 60 percent in recent cycles, reflecting limited Democratic organizational strength and voter registration advantages that favor the GOP nominee. Democratic candidate Elinor Gilbreath faces the same structural headwinds that produced Simpson's 2024 reelection share of 61.4 percent. While late-cycle national shifts, candidate health developments, or unforeseen scandals could narrow the gap, the district's established partisan baseline and Simpson's long tenure continue to anchor the overwhelming market pricing.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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