Incumbent Republican Jim Baird secured his party's nomination in the May 2026 primary and faces Democrat Drew Cox and independent David Bokash in Indiana's 4th congressional district general election on November 3. The west-central Indiana district, encompassing Lafayette and surrounding rural and suburban areas, has consistently delivered Republican margins above 20 points in recent cycles, including Baird's 2024 reelection. With the race rated Solid Republican by forecasters and no competitive polling shifts or major campaign developments reported since the primary, trader consensus reflects the district's partisan composition, incumbency advantage, and limited Democratic infrastructure. A late scandal, health event affecting Baird, or unanticipated national Democratic surge could alter the outcome, though structural barriers remain substantial.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$10,237 Vol.
$10,237 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
93%
民主党
7%
$10,237 Vol.
$10,237 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
$7,932 Vol.
93%
民主党
$2,305 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jim Baird secured his party's nomination in the May 2026 primary and faces Democrat Drew Cox and independent David Bokash in Indiana's 4th congressional district general election on November 3. The west-central Indiana district, encompassing Lafayette and surrounding rural and suburban areas, has consistently delivered Republican margins above 20 points in recent cycles, including Baird's 2024 reelection. With the race rated Solid Republican by forecasters and no competitive polling shifts or major campaign developments reported since the primary, trader consensus reflects the district's partisan composition, incumbency advantage, and limited Democratic infrastructure. A late scandal, health event affecting Baird, or unanticipated national Democratic surge could alter the outcome, though structural barriers remain substantial.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
音量
$10,237終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jim Baird secured his party's nomination in the May 2026 primary and faces Democrat Drew Cox and independent David Bokash in Indiana's 4th congressional district general election on November 3. The west-central Indiana district, encompassing Lafayette and surrounding rural and suburban areas, has consistently delivered Republican margins above 20 points in recent cycles, including Baird's 2024 reelection. With the race rated Solid Republican by forecasters and no competitive polling shifts or major campaign developments reported since the primary, trader consensus reflects the district's partisan composition, incumbency advantage, and limited Democratic infrastructure. A late scandal, health event affecting Baird, or unanticipated national Democratic surge could alter the outcome, though structural barriers remain substantial.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$10,237終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Jim Baird secured his party's nomination in the May 2026 primary and faces Democrat Drew Cox and independent David Bokash in Indiana's 4th congressional district general election on November 3. The west-central Indiana district, encompassing Lafayette and surrounding rural and suburban areas, has consistently delivered Republican margins above 20 points in recent cycles, including Baird's 2024 reelection. With the race rated Solid Republican by forecasters and no competitive polling shifts or major campaign developments reported since the primary, trader consensus reflects the district's partisan composition, incumbency advantage, and limited Democratic infrastructure. A late scandal, health event affecting Baird, or unanticipated national Democratic surge could alter the outcome, though structural barriers remain substantial.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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