Indiana's 4th congressional district, encompassing west-central areas including Lafayette and western Indianapolis suburbs, remains a solidly Republican seat following the May 2026 primaries where incumbent Jim Baird secured his party's nomination. Baird's prior general election performance above 64 percent, combined with the district's consistent partisan lean and limited Democratic infrastructure, underpins the strong trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. Recent primary results and candidate filings show no unusual competitive pressure, aligning with historical patterns for this district. Factors that could still shift odds include a national political realignment, major candidate-specific developments such as health events or ethics issues, or unusually high Democratic turnout in a midterm environment, though such scenarios would require substantial deviation from established voting trends.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
94%
民主党
7%
新規
新規
2026/11/03
共和党
$3,818 Vol.
94%
民主党
$2,143 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Indiana's 4th congressional district, encompassing west-central areas including Lafayette and western Indianapolis suburbs, remains a solidly Republican seat following the May 2026 primaries where incumbent Jim Baird secured his party's nomination. Baird's prior general election performance above 64 percent, combined with the district's consistent partisan lean and limited Democratic infrastructure, underpins the strong trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. Recent primary results and candidate filings show no unusual competitive pressure, aligning with historical patterns for this district. Factors that could still shift odds include a national political realignment, major candidate-specific developments such as health events or ethics issues, or unusually high Democratic turnout in a midterm environment, though such scenarios would require substantial deviation from established voting trends.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
音量
$5,961終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Indiana's 4th congressional district, encompassing west-central areas including Lafayette and western Indianapolis suburbs, remains a solidly Republican seat following the May 2026 primaries where incumbent Jim Baird secured his party's nomination. Baird's prior general election performance above 64 percent, combined with the district's consistent partisan lean and limited Democratic infrastructure, underpins the strong trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. Recent primary results and candidate filings show no unusual competitive pressure, aligning with historical patterns for this district. Factors that could still shift odds include a national political realignment, major candidate-specific developments such as health events or ethics issues, or unusually high Democratic turnout in a midterm environment, though such scenarios would require substantial deviation from established voting trends.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$5,961終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Indiana's 4th congressional district, encompassing west-central areas including Lafayette and western Indianapolis suburbs, remains a solidly Republican seat following the May 2026 primaries where incumbent Jim Baird secured his party's nomination. Baird's prior general election performance above 64 percent, combined with the district's consistent partisan lean and limited Democratic infrastructure, underpins the strong trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. Recent primary results and candidate filings show no unusual competitive pressure, aligning with historical patterns for this district. Factors that could still shift odds include a national political realignment, major candidate-specific developments such as health events or ethics issues, or unusually high Democratic turnout in a midterm environment, though such scenarios would require substantial deviation from established voting trends.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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