Tennessee's 1st congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat, with the incumbent Diana Harshbarger holding a commanding position ahead of the November 3 general election. The district's R+29 Partisan Voter Index, combined with Donald Trump's 29.5-point margin there in 2024, reflects entrenched voter preferences that have delivered Harshbarger victories near 78% in prior cycles. Her substantial fundraising edge—exceeding $1 million against Kristi Burke's roughly $100,000—further reinforces the gap, as does the absence of competitive polling or recent developments that might shift fundamentals. Traders price Harshbarger near 97% because structural factors, including Republican redistricting and long-term party control dating to the 19th century, leave limited room for an upset. A late-breaking scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Democratic turnout could narrow margins, though historical patterns indicate such shifts would require extraordinary circumstances to overcome the baseline advantage.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$27,113 Vol.
$27,113 Vol.
2026/11/02
ダイアナ・ハーシュバーガー（共和党）
97%
クリスティ・バーク（民主党）
3%
$27,113 Vol.
$27,113 Vol.
2026/11/02
ダイアナ・ハーシュバーガー（共和党）
$21,678 Vol.
97%
クリスティ・バーク（民主党）
$5,435 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Tennessee's 1st congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat, with the incumbent Diana Harshbarger holding a commanding position ahead of the November 3 general election. The district's R+29 Partisan Voter Index, combined with Donald Trump's 29.5-point margin there in 2024, reflects entrenched voter preferences that have delivered Harshbarger victories near 78% in prior cycles. Her substantial fundraising edge—exceeding $1 million against Kristi Burke's roughly $100,000—further reinforces the gap, as does the absence of competitive polling or recent developments that might shift fundamentals. Traders price Harshbarger near 97% because structural factors, including Republican redistricting and long-term party control dating to the 19th century, leave limited room for an upset. A late-breaking scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Democratic turnout could narrow margins, though historical patterns indicate such shifts would require extraordinary circumstances to overcome the baseline advantage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
音量
$27,113終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Tennessee's 1st congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat, with the incumbent Diana Harshbarger holding a commanding position ahead of the November 3 general election. The district's R+29 Partisan Voter Index, combined with Donald Trump's 29.5-point margin there in 2024, reflects entrenched voter preferences that have delivered Harshbarger victories near 78% in prior cycles. Her substantial fundraising edge—exceeding $1 million against Kristi Burke's roughly $100,000—further reinforces the gap, as does the absence of competitive polling or recent developments that might shift fundamentals. Traders price Harshbarger near 97% because structural factors, including Republican redistricting and long-term party control dating to the 19th century, leave limited room for an upset. A late-breaking scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Democratic turnout could narrow margins, though historical patterns indicate such shifts would require extraordinary circumstances to overcome the baseline advantage.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$27,113終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Tennessee's 1st congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat, with the incumbent Diana Harshbarger holding a commanding position ahead of the November 3 general election. The district's R+29 Partisan Voter Index, combined with Donald Trump's 29.5-point margin there in 2024, reflects entrenched voter preferences that have delivered Harshbarger victories near 78% in prior cycles. Her substantial fundraising edge—exceeding $1 million against Kristi Burke's roughly $100,000—further reinforces the gap, as does the absence of competitive polling or recent developments that might shift fundamentals. Traders price Harshbarger near 97% because structural factors, including Republican redistricting and long-term party control dating to the 19th century, leave limited room for an upset. A late-breaking scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Democratic turnout could narrow margins, though historical patterns indicate such shifts would require extraordinary circumstances to overcome the baseline advantage.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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