Incumbent Democrat Josh Riley holds a narrow edge in the competitive NY-19 race, consistent with the district’s D+1 Partisan Voter Index and Cook Political Report’s Lean Democratic rating. Riley secured the seat in 2024 by defeating the prior Republican incumbent by roughly two points and has since built strong fundraising and constituent-service momentum heading into the November 3, 2026 general election. The Republican primary on June 23 features state Sen. Peter Oberacker as the clear frontrunner against challenger Alexander Portelli, with the winner positioned to test Riley in an upstate district that mixes Hudson Valley and Southern Tier voters. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with historical patterns for narrow-margin seats where the sitting member benefits from name recognition and modest structural advantages early in the cycle.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
新規
2026/11/04
共和党
45%
民主党
51%
新規
新規
2026/11/04
共和党
$50 Vol.
45%
民主党
$225 Vol.
51%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Josh Riley holds a narrow edge in the competitive NY-19 race, consistent with the district’s D+1 Partisan Voter Index and Cook Political Report’s Lean Democratic rating. Riley secured the seat in 2024 by defeating the prior Republican incumbent by roughly two points and has since built strong fundraising and constituent-service momentum heading into the November 3, 2026 general election. The Republican primary on June 23 features state Sen. Peter Oberacker as the clear frontrunner against challenger Alexander Portelli, with the winner positioned to test Riley in an upstate district that mixes Hudson Valley and Southern Tier voters. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with historical patterns for narrow-margin seats where the sitting member benefits from name recognition and modest structural advantages early in the cycle.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ET
音量
$275終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Josh Riley holds a narrow edge in the competitive NY-19 race, consistent with the district’s D+1 Partisan Voter Index and Cook Political Report’s Lean Democratic rating. Riley secured the seat in 2024 by defeating the prior Republican incumbent by roughly two points and has since built strong fundraising and constituent-service momentum heading into the November 3, 2026 general election. The Republican primary on June 23 features state Sen. Peter Oberacker as the clear frontrunner against challenger Alexander Portelli, with the winner positioned to test Riley in an upstate district that mixes Hudson Valley and Southern Tier voters. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with historical patterns for narrow-margin seats where the sitting member benefits from name recognition and modest structural advantages early in the cycle.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$275終了日
2026/11/04マーケット開始日
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Josh Riley holds a narrow edge in the competitive NY-19 race, consistent with the district’s D+1 Partisan Voter Index and Cook Political Report’s Lean Democratic rating. Riley secured the seat in 2024 by defeating the prior Republican incumbent by roughly two points and has since built strong fundraising and constituent-service momentum heading into the November 3, 2026 general election. The Republican primary on June 23 features state Sen. Peter Oberacker as the clear frontrunner against challenger Alexander Portelli, with the winner positioned to test Riley in an upstate district that mixes Hudson Valley and Southern Tier voters. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with historical patterns for narrow-margin seats where the sitting member benefits from name recognition and modest structural advantages early in the cycle.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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